Research

What happens to the Magic's player props without Paolo Banchero?

Quick answer

In the 10 regular-season games Orlando played without Paolo Banchero in 2025-26, all in a row from November 14 to December 3, against 72 with him, the Magic scored 122.30 points a game (median 123) against 114.83 (median 115). Franz Wagner averaged 23.60 points without him against 19.29 with him, in 33.90 minutes against 28.33, and Desmond Bane 23.10 (median 21) against 19.67 (median 20). Ten games in one three-week stretch is a small sample, the cause of that absence is unknown from our logs, and these are last season's numbers, not a forecast.

Paolo Banchero will not play for Orlando at New York on Sunday, October 25, 2026. The ESPN injury feed lists him as out in an entry dated October 24, 2026; its comment says he is expected to miss four to six weeks with “a right high-ankle sprain,” and that he left Friday’s loss to Minnesota with the ankle injury. Orlando has played two games this season, both with him, so every comparison below comes from last season: the Magic played 82 regular-season games in 2025-26, Banchero played 10 or more minutes in 72 of them, and 10 came without him. Our logs do not say why he missed those games, so the cause is unknown.

A game counts as with Banchero when he played at least 10 minutes, a fifth of regulation. He played fewer than 20 minutes once, November 12 at New York (12 minutes, 4 points), and that game counts as with him; the 10 games without him began two days later and ran in a row to December 3. Six of the 10 were at home.

The Magic, with Banchero against without him

Magic per game (median)With, 72 gamesWithout, 10 games
Points114.83 (115)122.30 (123)
Rebounds43.25 (42)44.30 (45)
Assists26.53 (27)26.70 (27.5)
Three-pointers11.71 (12)11.80 (12.5)

The Magic scored more without Banchero, at the mean and at the median, over 10 games from one three-week stretch. Ten games is a small sample, and our logs say nothing about the opponents’ strength in that stretch, so read the gap as what happened, not as a rule.

Banchero himself averaged 22.21 points, 8.39 rebounds and 5.18 assists in 34.71 minutes in the games he played.

The teammates: minutes and points

PlayerGames with, withoutMinutes withMinutes withoutPoints with (median)Points without (median)
Franz Wagner24, 1028.3333.9019.29 (19.5)23.60 (23)
Desmond Bane72, 1033.3635.5019.67 (20)23.10 (21)
Anthony Black54, 1029.9829.4014.91 (14)15.40 (15)
Jalen Suggs49, 827.4528.1213.43 (13)16.00 (14)
Wendell Carter Jr.69, 929.2630.1111.93 (11)11.00 (11)
Tristan da Silva67, 1024.3926.709.73 (9)11.00 (11)
Goga Bitadze55, 914.8716.895.69 (5)6.89 (6)
Jase Richardson49, 510.9210.804.14 (3)7.20 (7)
Jamal Cain35, 512.946.005.91 (4)1.60 (1)

The teammates: rebounds, assists and threes

PlayerRebounds withRebounds withoutAssists withAssists withoutThrees withThrees without
Franz Wagner4.83 (5)6.10 (6)3.08 (3)3.90 (3.5)1.50 (1.5)1.20 (0.5)
Desmond Bane4.03 (4)4.80 (4.5)4.07 (4)4.50 (5)2.04 (2)2.00 (2)
Anthony Black3.85 (3)3.60 (3.5)3.70 (3.5)3.60 (4)1.63 (1)1.20 (1)
Jalen Suggs3.78 (3)4.38 (4)5.51 (5)5.25 (5)2.16 (2)2.00 (2)
Wendell Carter Jr.7.38 (7)7.56 (7)1.93 (2)2.33 (2)0.91 (1)1.00 (1)
Tristan da Silva3.58 (3)4.40 (4)1.61 (1)1.60 (1.5)1.52 (1)1.80 (2)
Goga Bitadze4.93 (4)5.44 (5)1.22 (1)1.89 (2)0.04 (0)0.00 (0)
Jase Richardson1.06 (1)2.20 (1)1.06 (1)1.20 (1)0.47 (0)1.00 (1)
Jamal Cain2.11 (1)0.80 (0)0.77 (1)0.40 (0)0.77 (1)0.20 (0)

Every figure is per game the player played, in the group of games shown. Games with and games without count the games each player appeared in, so a player who missed games himself has a smaller count than the group. Franz Wagner played only 24 games with Banchero, so both of his columns rest on small counts. Jase Richardson and Jamal Cain played 5 games each without him, and five games is a small sample, so their columns are a hint at most.

Two games this season, and the one he left

Orlando is 2 games into 2026-27. Banchero played 41 minutes and scored 35 in the opener, October 21 vs Atlanta, when the Magic scored 125. On Friday, October 23 vs Minnesota, the game the feed says he left with the ankle injury, he played 26 minutes and scored 14, and the Magic scored 93. In that game Franz Wagner scored 18 in 33 minutes, Wendell Carter Jr. 20 in 29, Jalen Suggs 14 in 34, Desmond Bane 5 in 27 and Tristan da Silva 5 in 29. One game is not a sample, and we cannot tell from our logs which minutes came after he left.

What this can and cannot tell you

The clearest shifts are Wagner and Bane. Wagner scored 23.60 a game without Banchero (median 23) against 19.29 with him (median 19.5), in more than five extra minutes, with more rebounds and assists. Bane scored 23.10 (median 21) against 19.67 (median 20) in about two more minutes; his median moved by one point, so a few big nights carry much of his gap. Suggs and Richardson scored more as well, Carter a little less at the mean and the same at the median, and da Silva added 1.27 points in about two more minutes. The feed’s comment names da Silva as the likeliest new starter, and none of last season’s games tells us what a starting role does to his numbers.

The roster has changed since. Jevon Carter, Alex Morales and Colin Castleton joined after that stretch and never played for Orlando without Banchero in 2025-26. Nikola Vucevic, on the roster ESPN listed on October 24, 2026, did not play for Orlando last season. Isaac and Penda are out for Sunday, and Black is questionable. With the cause of the absence unknown, and a sample of ten games from one part of one season, none of this forecasts Sunday’s game at New York, and none of it says anything about prices.

Where to find these

Each player has a page with every game beside the line: Franz Wagner’s points, Desmond Bane’s points and Tristan da Silva’s points. Sunday’s lines appear on the Lab board once the game is posted. The NBA allowance tables are on defense vs position for NBA props, and the same question for Orlando’s guard is in Magic props without Anthony Black.

Source: our NBA game logs, regular season only, Orlando’s 82 games in 2025-26 through April 12, 2026, and its 2 games of 2026-27 through October 23. Statuses as listed on the ESPN injury feed, entries dated October 24 and October 17, 2026, read October 24, 2026.

Written by Ben at Steezanomics. Every public Lab play since Sep 25, 2026 is logged, losses included.

Quick answers

How many games did the Magic play without Paolo Banchero last season?

10 of their 82 regular-season games, all in a row from November 14 to December 3, 2025. A game counts as with Banchero when he played at least 10 minutes, a fifth of regulation; he played 10 or more in the other 72.

What did Banchero himself average?

In the 72 games he played 10 or more minutes in 2025-26, 22.21 points (median 23), 8.39 rebounds (median 8) and 5.18 assists (median 5) in 34.71 minutes a game (median 36).

Who scored more without him?

Franz Wagner averaged 23.60 points (median 23) in 10 games without Banchero against 19.29 (median 19.5) in 24 with him, in 33.90 minutes against 28.33. Desmond Bane averaged 23.10 (median 21) in 10 without against 19.67 (median 20) in 72 with, in 35.50 minutes against 33.36. Jalen Suggs went from 13.43 to 16.00 (median 14) in 8 games without.

Who else is out for Sunday?

The same ESPN feed lists Jonathan Isaac as out and Anthony Black as questionable in entries dated October 24, 2026, and Noah Penda as out in an entry dated October 17. Isaac played in 9 of last season's 10 games without Banchero and Penda in 5, so last season's split of the minutes is not Sunday's.

Does this tell me what will happen at New York?

No. Ten games is a small sample, all from one stretch of last season, and Jevon Carter, Alex Morales and Colin Castleton never played for Orlando without Banchero in 2025-26. These numbers describe what happened; they do not forecast Sunday, and they say nothing about the prices.

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