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Wednesday, September 2

The Card

5 plays out of 282 lines on today's board. Each one shows the price, what the market says it is really worth, and the history behind it, so you can disagree with any of them before you bet.

Posted before the games and graded afterwards, win or lose. Every play we have ever posted.

1
Drew AndersonUnder 14.5 OutsDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
+156NoVig
NoVig+156ProphetX+142bet365+130DraftKings+125BetMGM+125FanDuel+122Caesars+122Fanatics+120Hard Rock+120theScore Bet+115Bovada+110Fliff+10012 books · +156 to +100
season96%45 games
last 1080%
market fair+14041.7% no-vig
form vs price+44.7points
with 50% boost+234

Drew Anderson has gone under 14.5 outs in 96% of his 45 games this season, and in 8 of his last 10.

2
Dylan CeaseOver 6.5 StrikeoutsToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
+117NoVig
NoVig+117ProphetX+117Polymarket+100Pinnacle+100DraftKings-101FanDuel-104theScore Bet-105Hard Rock-105Caesars-108bet365-110Fanatics-115Bovada-115BetMGM-115BetOnline-118Fliff-120BetRivers-14816 books · +117 to -148
season88%25 games
last 10100%
market fair+11746.1% no-vig
form vs price+49.1points
with 50% boost+176

Dylan Cease has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in 88% of his 25 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.

3
Colt KeithUnder 1.5 H+R+RBIDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
-120theScore Bet
theScore Bet-120Bovada-125Hard Rock-130Caesars-132ProphetX-132DraftKings-133NoVig-135Fliff-145BetMGM-145bet365-15010 books · -120 to -150
season63%126 games
last 10100%
market fair-11653.7% no-vig
form vs price+31.5points
with 50% boost+125

Colt Keith has gone under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 63% of his 126 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.

He faces Dean Kremer.

Against it: his last 10 (100%) is far off his season rate (63%), so this leans on a streak holding.

4
Leo JimenezUnder 1.5 H+R+RBIMiami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
-140theScore Bet
theScore Bet-140Bovada-160DraftKings-161ProphetX-162NoVig-163Caesars-164Hard Rock-165BetMGM-175bet365-175Fliff-18010 books · -140 to -180
season75%63 games
last 1090%
market fair-13757.9% no-vig
form vs price+26.1points
with 50% boost+107

Leo Jimenez has gone under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 75% of his 63 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.

He faces Noah Cameron.

5
Jazz Chisholm Jr.Over 0.5 H+R+RBINew York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
-160NoVig
NoVig-160BetMGM-160ProphetX-168Caesars-170Bovada-170Hard Rock-175DraftKings-178Fliff-1908 books · -160 to -190
season68%129 games
last 1090%
market fair-14459.1% no-vig
form vs price+22.1points
with 50% boost-107

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has gone over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 68% of his 129 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.

He faces Reid Detmers.

Jr. also has his hard-hit rate in the 72nd percentile of qualified regulars.

What has to be true before a play gets posted

  • A real history behind it. At least 20 games logged, so a hot week cannot masquerade as a trend.
  • A price the market agrees is a price. At least 2 no-vig exchanges quoting it, or it does not appear here at all.
  • Something you can actually bet. Between -250 and +700, because a 40-to-1 shot with a great number on it is still a 40-to-1 shot.
  • Spread out. one line per player, max two per game, so one bad night for one team cannot take the whole card down with it.

Prices are the ones on the board when the card was posted. They move. Check yours before you bet.

Trend leans

Every line on the slate where recent form runs furthest from the price, graded. These are not picks and they are not part of the card's published record. A lean, not a probability.

A+Dylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansOver 6.5 Strikeouts10/10 L10 · 88% SZN+117A+Drew AndersonDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsUnder 14.5 Outs8/10 L10 · 96% SZN+156A+Drew AndersonDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsUnder 4.5 Hits Allowed9/10 L10 · 93% SZN+100AHa-Seong KimAtlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsUnder 0.5 Runs10/10 L10 · 87% SZN-193AAustin HaysSan Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 1.5 Total Bases10/10 L10 · 79% SZN-155ABrian NavarretoMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsUnder 0.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 84% SZN-110ABrian NavarretoMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 84% SZN-110AShay WhitcombSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 92% SZN-163AKaelen CulpepperDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsOver 0.5 Hits9/10 L10 · 81% SZN-146AKaelen CulpepperDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsOver 0.5 Total Bases9/10 L10 · 81% SZN-146AHa-Seong KimAtlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsUnder 0.5 Hits7/10 L10 · 73% SZN+122AGunnar HendersonBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 1.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 66% SZN+110AShay WhitcombSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Hits7/10 L10 · 79% SZN+114AShay WhitcombSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Total Bases7/10 L10 · 79% SZN+110B+Colt KeithDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI10/10 L10 · 63% SZN-120B+Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 0.5 Walks10/10 L10 · 66% SZN-130B+Gary SanchezMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsUnder 0.5 Singles10/10 L10 · 73% SZN-150B+Zach NetoNew York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsOver 0.5 Runs8/10 L10 · 49% SZN+160B+Lawrence ButlerAthletics @ Texas RangersOver 0.5 RBIs8/10 L10 · 28% SZN+233B+Gary SanchezMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 55% SZN+132B+Spencer HorwitzSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Runs9/10 L10 · 67% SZN-115B+Colt KeithDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsUnder 0.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 49% SZN+150B+Gary SanchezMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsUnder 0.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 55% SZN+130B+Gunnar HendersonBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 2.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 68% SZN-110B+Samuel BasalloBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 61% SZN-110B+Colt KeithDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 49% SZN+150B+Zach NetoNew York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsOver 1.5 H+R+RBI8/10 L10 · 52% SZN+144B+Colt KeithDetroit Tigers @ Minnesota TwinsUnder 0.5 Runs10/10 L10 · 69% SZN-150B+Alex BregmanMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsOver 1.5 H+R+RBI8/10 L10 · 54% SZN+122B+Leo JimenezMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 75% SZN-140B+Joshua BaezSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersUnder 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 88% SZN-190B+Drew GilbertSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 67% SZN-130B+Rafael FloresSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 74% SZN-150B+Samuel BasalloBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 0.5 Runs8/10 L10 · 66% SZN+105B+Andrew VaughnMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsUnder 0.5 Runs9/10 L10 · 72% SZN-140B+Gunnar HendersonBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 1.5 Hits9/10 L10 · 80% SZN-165B+Austin RileyAtlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsUnder 0.5 Runs9/10 L10 · 69% SZN-140B+Dylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansUnder 4.5 Hits Allowed8/10 L10 · 72% SZN-125B+Eury PerezMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsOver 4.5 Strikeouts8/10 L10 · 79% SZN-138B+Ha-Seong KimAtlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI8/10 L10 · 80% SZN-150BMiguel VargasChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosOver 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 42% SZN+140BMiguel VargasChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosOver 0.5 Walks9/10 L10 · 49% SZN+110BLeody TaverasBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 59% SZN-115BJunior CamineroNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysOver 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 51% SZN+105BJazz Chisholm Jr.New York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsOver 0.5 Singles8/10 L10 · 44% SZN+160BRafael FloresSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 56% SZN+125BCam SmithChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosUnder 0.5 Singles10/10 L10 · 66% SZN-165BRafael FloresSan Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 0.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 56% SZN+125BCole CarriggBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI8/10 L10 · 55% SZN+120BLawrence ButlerAthletics @ Texas RangersOver 0.5 Walks7/10 L10 · 34% SZN+232BAustin HaysSan Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 0.5 RBIs10/10 L10 · 75% SZN-200BLuis CampusanoSan Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 0.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 46% SZN+135BJustin CrawfordPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksUnder 1.5 Total Bases10/10 L10 · 73% SZN-200BJacob LopezAthletics @ Texas RangersUnder 2.5 Earned Runs9/10 L10 · 68% SZN-142BLuis ArraezPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksUnder 0.5 RBIs10/10 L10 · 68% SZN-175BJacob LopezAthletics @ Texas RangersUnder 16.5 Outs7/10 L10 · 86% SZN-104BMunetaka MurakamiChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 58% SZN-125BZach NetoNew York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsOver 0.5 Hits9/10 L10 · 66% SZN-142BFrancisco AlvarezNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysUnder 0.5 Runs10/10 L10 · 76% SZN-236BCole CarriggBaltimore Orioles @ Colorado RockiesUnder 0.5 Singles8/10 L10 · 58% SZN+105BZach NetoNew York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsOver 0.5 Total Bases9/10 L10 · 66% SZN-150BTaylor TrammellChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosUnder 0.5 Runs10/10 L10 · 71% SZN-200BNathan ChurchSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersOver 0.5 RBIs6/10 L10 · 27% SZN+342BSamad TaylorSan Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 0.5 RBIs10/10 L10 · 79% SZN-220BJose SiriNew York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 59% SZN-104BAgustín RamírezMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsUnder 0.5 Hits7/10 L10 · 48% SZN+162BAgustín RamírezMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsUnder 0.5 RBIs10/10 L10 · 77% SZN-220BNathan ChurchSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersOver 0.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 66% SZN-159BJunior CamineroNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysOver 0.5 Hits10/10 L10 · 75% SZN-235BAlex BregmanMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsOver 0.5 Runs7/10 L10 · 44% SZN+165BDanny JansenAthletics @ Texas RangersUnder 0.5 Singles10/10 L10 · 77% SZN-240BJazz Chisholm Jr.New York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsOver 0.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 68% SZN-160BMike YastrzemskiAtlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsUnder 0.5 Runs9/10 L10 · 71% SZN-195BDylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansUnder 1.5 Earned Runs7/10 L10 · 56% SZN+125BGeraldo PerdomoPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksUnder 0.5 Runs8/10 L10 · 59% SZN-115BZach NetoNew York Yankees @ Los Angeles AngelsOver 0.5 Singles7/10 L10 · 47% SZN+140BEsteury RuizMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsUnder 0.5 H+R+RBI7/10 L10 · 53% SZN+140BAlejandro KirkToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansUnder 1.5 Total Bases9/10 L10 · 71% SZN-175BLane ThomasAtlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsUnder 0.5 Total Bases7/10 L10 · 50% SZN+130BHeriberto HernandezMiami Marlins @ Kansas City RoyalsUnder 0.5 Singles8/10 L10 · 67% SZN-130BRoman AnthonySeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 0.5 Runs7/10 L10 · 70% SZN-105BJordan WalkerSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersOver 0.5 Runs6/10 L10 · 51% SZN+165BRoman AnthonySeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 0.5 RBIs9/10 L10 · 85% SZN-240BJordan WalkerSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersOver 1.5 H+R+RBI6/10 L10 · 62% SZN+122C+Ceddanne RafaelaSeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 0.5 Runs10/10 L10 · 60% SZN-165C+Luis CampusanoSan Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 46% SZN+135C+Brandon MarshPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksUnder 1.5 Total Bases10/10 L10 · 64% SZN-160C+Taylor WardSeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 0.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 40% SZN+140C+Lawrence ButlerAthletics @ Texas RangersOver 1.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 40% SZN+110C+Ronald Acuna Jr.Atlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI8/10 L10 · 50% SZN+125C+Daylen LileAtlanta Braves @ Washington NationalsOver 0.5 Walks7/10 L10 · 23% SZN+261C+Junior CamineroNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysOver 1.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 59% SZN-127C+Corbin CarrollPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI8/10 L10 · 49% SZN+120C+Cam SmithChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosUnder 0.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 49% SZN+112C+Ernie ClementToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansUnder 0.5 Runs10/10 L10 · 67% SZN-220C+Austin HaysSan Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 0.5 Total Bases7/10 L10 · 42% SZN+160C+Cam SmithChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 49% SZN+110C+Taylor WardSeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 58% SZN-140C+Miguel VargasChicago White Sox @ Houston AstrosOver 0.5 Hits9/10 L10 · 67% SZN-167C+Jo AdellToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansOver 0.5 Singles7/10 L10 · 44% SZN+140C+Garrett StubbsPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI8/10 L10 · 83% SZN-180C+Wilyer AbreuSeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 0.5 RBIs9/10 L10 · 63% SZN-165C+Luis LaraMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsOver 0.5 Hits9/10 L10 · 66% SZN-174C+David PetersonMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago CubsUnder 2.5 Earned Runs8/10 L10 · 63% SZN-130C+Max MuncySt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersUnder 0.5 Runs8/10 L10 · 63% SZN-130C+Dominic CanzoneSeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 0.5 Walks9/10 L10 · 73% SZN-216CGriffin JaxNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysOver 11.5 Outs10/10 L10 · 54% SZN-135CTaylor WardSeattle Mariners @ Boston Red SoxUnder 0.5 Hits8/10 L10 · 40% SZN+140CShohei OhtaniSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersUnder 0.5 RBIs10/10 L10 · 59% SZN-180CErnie ClementToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansUnder 1.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 52% SZN-120CJuan BritoSan Diego Padres @ Cincinnati RedsUnder 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 69% SZN-165CBryce HarperPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 1.5 Total Bases8/10 L10 · 44% SZN+122CDylan CeaseToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland GuardiansOver 17.5 Outs9/10 L10 · 56% SZN-136CGeraldo PerdomoPhiladelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondbacksOver 0.5 Singles9/10 L10 · 48% SZN-130CLawrence ButlerAthletics @ Texas RangersOver 0.5 Hits10/10 L10 · 52% SZN-155CCody FreemanAthletics @ Texas RangersOver 0.5 H+R+RBI9/10 L10 · 65% SZN-178CGriffin JaxNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysOver 2.5 Hits Allowed9/10 L10 · 54% SZN-150CJunior CamineroNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysOver 0.5 RBIs7/10 L10 · 40% SZN+144CGriffin JaxNew York Mets @ Tampa Bay RaysOver 4.5 Strikeouts9/10 L10 · 39% SZN-111CNathan ChurchSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles DodgersOver 0.5 Singles7/10 L10 · 46% SZN+124

True of every pick on this card

  • These are historical-rate reads. No park, weather, or lineup-spot adjustment is applied yet.
  • Retail prices carry roughly 7% vig on props, so almost every line here prices worse than the market's fair number. Shopping the price across books is what narrows it.
  • This card is forward-tested in public and every settled result is on the results page. The sample is still early, so treat it as research rather than a signal.

built Sep 2, 10:02 AM · selection and wording are generated from the data, not written by hand