Drew Anderson has gone under 14.5 outs in 96% of his 45 games this season, and in 8 of his last 10.
Wednesday, September 2
The Card
5 plays out of 282 lines on today's board. Each one shows the price, what the market says it is really worth, and the history behind it, so you can disagree with any of them before you bet.
Posted before the games and graded afterwards, win or lose. Every play we have ever posted.
Dylan Cease has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in 88% of his 25 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.
Colt Keith has gone under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 63% of his 126 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.
He faces Dean Kremer.
Against it: his last 10 (100%) is far off his season rate (63%), so this leans on a streak holding.
Leo Jimenez has gone under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 75% of his 63 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.
He faces Noah Cameron.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has gone over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 68% of his 129 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.
He faces Reid Detmers.
Jr. also has his hard-hit rate in the 72nd percentile of qualified regulars.
What has to be true before a play gets posted
- A real history behind it. At least 20 games logged, so a hot week cannot masquerade as a trend.
- A price the market agrees is a price. At least 2 no-vig exchanges quoting it, or it does not appear here at all.
- Something you can actually bet. Between -250 and +700, because a 40-to-1 shot with a great number on it is still a 40-to-1 shot.
- Spread out. one line per player, max two per game, so one bad night for one team cannot take the whole card down with it.
Prices are the ones on the board when the card was posted. They move. Check yours before you bet.
Trend leans
Every line on the slate where recent form runs furthest from the price, graded. These are not picks and they are not part of the card's published record. A lean, not a probability.
True of every pick on this card
- These are historical-rate reads. No park, weather, or lineup-spot adjustment is applied yet.
- Retail prices carry roughly 7% vig on props, so almost every line here prices worse than the market's fair number. Shopping the price across books is what narrows it.
- This card is forward-tested in public and every settled result is on the results page. The sample is still early, so treat it as research rather than a signal.
Written up
built Sep 2, 10:02 AM · selection and wording are generated from the data, not written by hand
boosted
The Boosts
Profit boosts from the books, filled by hand and run through the same math as everything else: the quoted price, the boosted price, the devigged fair, and the edge that is left. Posted only after review.
no boost plays today. boosts post only on days the desk is at the books. the straight picks run every day, boosts are extra.
recent boost plays
prices are what the book quoted when the play was entered, with the time shown · a boost play posts only after review