STEEZANOMICS.

MLB PLAYER PROPS · Thursday, August 27

Brewers vs Mets player props, and the case against each one.

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, first pitch 7:11 PM ET. Below are our 2 best props in this game, chosen on recent form, season baseline, the matchup and the odds actually available, with the exact price, where to get it, and the reason each might be wrong.

Our graded card is 50-53-7 at -4.8% ROI since Aug 9. Every pick, graded, losers included.

The arms

Jacob Misiorowski

Brewers

ERA
1.68
WHIP
0.76
K/9
13.41
hard contact allowed
33.0%
HR per batter faced
2.36%

Sean Manaea

Mets

ERA
4.31
WHIP
1.31
K/9
9.00
hard contact allowed
42.6%
HR per batter faced
3.74%

ON TODAY'S CARD

Jared Young Over 0.5 H+R+RBI

-134at DraftKings

Jared Young has gone over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 68% of his 80 games this season, and in 7 of his last 10.

He faces Jacob Misiorowski.

This one is on the Lab's card for today, which takes the best five lines across the whole slate and is graded in public afterwards. See the other four and how they are priced.

PickPriceBookWhy
William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases+132bet365over in 60% of his last ten; Contreras hits the ball hard at the 72nd percentile of qualified regulars
Sal Frelick Under 0.5 Hits+160theScore Betunder in 60% of his last ten; Frelick hits the ball hard at only the 9th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does, and these are separate from the card play above.

Angle 1

William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases

+132at bet365

William Contreras has gone over 1.5 total bases in 42% of 123 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Sean Manaea.

  • Contreras hits the ball hard at the 72nd percentile of qualified regulars.
  • Sean Manaea has allowed hard contact on 42.6% of balls in play, above the 42% league mark.

The case against

The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +131 against the +132 shown. That is a market comparison rather than our own probability, so treat it as context and not as a verdict.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 2

Sal Frelick Under 0.5 Hits

+160at theScore Bet

Sal Frelick has gone under 0.5 hits in 43% of 89 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Sean Manaea.

  • Frelick hits the ball hard at only the 9th percentile of qualified regulars.
  • He bats left-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 28th percentile on.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +167 and this is +160, giving up roughly 2.4%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Sean Manaea has allowed hard contact on 42.6% of balls in play, above the 42% league mark.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest props in this matchup, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is recorded with the exact price and book shown, at a flat stake, from the moment it was published.

Also today: Best MLB hits props for today, and today's full card.

Every prop in this gameThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Thursday, August 27. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Aug 27, 6:25 PM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.