MLB PLAYER PROPS · Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Today's MLB player prop picks, and the case against each one.

5 plays out of 282 prop lines that cleared the filters. Every one shows the price we saw and where, the form it rests on, and the reason it might be wrong. Posted before first pitch and graded afterwards, win or lose.

THE RECORD, NOT A PITCH

The current card is 50-53-7 since Aug 9, running -4.8% ROI at a flat stake. That is the honest number as of this morning, and it is the same number whichever way the week goes. Every pick we have ever posted is here, losers included.

Pick 1

Drew Anderson Under 14.5 Outs

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins · first pitch 7:41 PM ET

+156at NoVigprice seen Sep 2, 10:02 AM ET

Drew Anderson has gone under 14.5 outs in 96% of his 45 games this season, and in 8 of his last 10.

The case against

For reference, the books quoting this line imply a fair price around +140 against the +156 shown. That is a market comparison, not our own probability, so treat it as context rather than a verdict.

Best 6 of 12 books quoting it at posting

NoVig+156ProphetX+142bet365+130DraftKings+125BetMGM+125FanDuel+122

See the full game log and every book on Drew Anderson

Pick 2

Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians · first pitch 6:41 PM ET

+117at NoVigprice seen Sep 2, 10:02 AM ET

Dylan Cease has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in 88% of his 25 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.

The case against

For reference, the books quoting this line imply a fair price around +117 against the +117 shown. That is a market comparison, not our own probability, so treat it as context rather than a verdict.

Best 6 of 16 books quoting it at posting

NoVig+117ProphetX+117Polymarket+100Pinnacle+100DraftKings-101FanDuel-104

See the full game log and every book on Dylan Cease

Pick 3

Colt Keith Under 1.5 H+R+RBI

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins · first pitch 7:41 PM ET · facing Dean Kremer

-120at theScore Betprice seen Sep 2, 10:02 AM ET

Colt Keith has gone under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 63% of his 126 games this season, and in 10 of his last 10.
He faces Dean Kremer.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -116 and this is -120, giving up roughly 1.5%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap before the bet pays.

His last 10 (100%) is far off his season rate (63%), so this leans on a streak holding.

Best 6 of 10 books quoting it at posting

theScore Bet-120Bovada-125Hard Rock-130Caesars-132ProphetX-132DraftKings-133

See the full game log and every book on Colt Keith

Pick 4

Leo Jimenez Under 1.5 H+R+RBI

Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals · first pitch 7:41 PM ET · facing Noah Cameron

-140at theScore Betprice seen Sep 2, 10:02 AM ET

Leo Jimenez has gone under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 75% of his 63 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.
He faces Noah Cameron.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -137 and this is -140, giving up roughly 0.8%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap before the bet pays.

Best 6 of 10 books quoting it at posting

theScore Bet-140Bovada-160DraftKings-161ProphetX-162NoVig-163Caesars-164

See the full game log and every book on Leo Jimenez

Pick 5

Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 H+R+RBI

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels · first pitch 9:39 PM ET · facing Reid Detmers

-160at BetMGMprice seen Sep 2, 10:02 AM ET

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has gone over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 68% of his 129 games this season, and in 9 of his last 10.
He faces Reid Detmers.
Jr. also has his hard-hit rate in the 72nd percentile of qualified regulars.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -144 and this is -160, giving up roughly 4.0%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap before the bet pays.

Best 6 of 8 books quoting it at posting

NoVig-160BetMGM-160ProphetX-168Caesars-170Bovada-170Hard Rock-175

See the full game log and every book on Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Game by game

Two closer looks: one matchup broken down, and one market ranked across the whole slate. Both are separate from the card above.

Best hits props today3 form angles · MLB · across the whole slate Yankees vs Angels2 form angles · Cam Schlittler vs Reid Detmers

How these are picked

Every prop on the slate gets a fair value built from the books quoting it, with the vig stripped out and the book being judged left out of its own fair. The card then ranks on recent form against that price: how often the player has cleared this line, over what sample, and how far that sits from what the market is charging.

What that means, said plainly: these are form picks, not value picks. Three of today's five price worse than the market's own fair number, because retail props carry roughly 7% vig. If you want the line where the number itself is cheap, that is a different question and the board shows it on every prop.

Filters: at least 20 games of history, at least two sharp quotes on the line, prices between -250 and +700, one line per player and no more than two per game.

Open tonight's full board The record Every page we have published

What this page is not

It is not a guarantee and it is not advice. Individual props lose constantly; that is what a 50-something percent hit rate means. The claim here is narrow and checkable: the picks are posted before the games, the price is the one the Lab recorded when it built the card, and the result is published either way.

Updated Sep 2, 10:02 AM ET. This page lives at one address and is rewritten for each day's slate.

Built from the Lab's snapshot for Wednesday, September 2, 2026, locked at Sep 2, 10:02 AM ET. Prices were re-checked across the books at that moment. The sentences under each pick are generated from the same numbers printed beside them, not written fresh each day, so they say what the data says and nothing more. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.