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MLB PLAYER PROPS · Tuesday, September 1

Best MLB Total Bases Props, Tuesday September 1

3 selections from 93 MLB total bases props that cleared our form and pricing filters on tonight's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 50-53-7 at -4.8% ROI since Aug 9. Every pick, graded, losers included.

PickPriceBookWhy
Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 Total Bases-110theScore Betunder in 80% of his last ten; Paul Skenes has allowed hard contact on 39.1% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark
Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 Total Bases-165theScore Betunder in 90% of his last ten; Lee hits the ball hard at only the 15th percentile of qualified regulars
Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases+143BetRiversover in 50% of his last ten; Abreu hits the ball hard at the 74th percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 Total Bases

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates · first pitch 6:41 PM ET

-110at theScore Bet

Shay Whitcomb has gone under 0.5 total bases in 83% of 23 games this season and 80% across the last ten. He faces Paul Skenes.

  • Paul Skenes has allowed hard contact on 39.1% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +103 and this is -110, giving up roughly 5.8%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 2

Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 Total Bases

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates · first pitch 6:41 PM ET

-165at theScore Bet

Jung Hoo Lee has gone under 1.5 total bases in 61% of 126 games this season and 90% across the last ten. He faces Paul Skenes.

  • Lee hits the ball hard at only the 15th percentile of qualified regulars.
  • Paul Skenes has allowed hard contact on 39.1% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
  • He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 27th percentile on.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around -149 and this is -165, giving up roughly 3.8%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

The last ten (90%) sits a long way from the season rate (61%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 3

Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox · first pitch 6:46 PM ET

+143at BetRivers

Wilyer Abreu has gone over 1.5 total bases in 41% of 135 games this season and 50% across the last ten. He faces Bryan Woo.

  • Abreu hits the ball hard at the 74th percentile of qualified regulars.
  • Bryan Woo has allowed hard contact on 44.1% of balls in play, above the 42% league mark.
  • He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 76th percentile on.

The case against

The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +142 against the +143 shown. That is a market comparison rather than our own probability, so treat it as context and not as a verdict.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is recorded with the exact price and book shown, at a flat stake, from the moment it was published.

Also today: Best MLB hits props for Tuesday, and today's full card.

Every prop on tonight’s boardThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Tuesday, September 1. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Sep 1, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.