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MLB PLAYER PROPS · Sunday, August 30

Best MLB Home Run Props, Sunday August 30

3 selections from 18 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on tonight's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 50-53-7 at -4.8% ROI since Aug 9. Every pick, graded, losers included.

PickPriceBookWhy
Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 Home Runs+610DraftKingsover in 20% of his last ten; Benintendi barrels the ball at the 61st percentile of qualified regulars
Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 Home Runs+475Fanaticsover in 20% of his last ten; Montgomery barrels the ball at the 86th percentile of qualified regulars
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs+255Bovadaover in 40% of his last ten; Alonso barrels the ball at the 92nd percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 Home Runs

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins · first pitch 2:11 PM ET

+610at DraftKings

Andrew Benintendi has gone over 0.5 home runs in 12% of 118 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Zebby Matthews.

  • Benintendi barrels the ball at the 61st percentile of qualified regulars.
  • Zebby Matthews has allowed a home run on 4.34% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
  • He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 67th percentile on.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +645 and this is +610. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 2

Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 Home Runs

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins · first pitch 2:11 PM ET

+475at Fanatics

Colson Montgomery has gone over 0.5 home runs in 21% of 127 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Zebby Matthews.

  • Montgomery barrels the ball at the 86th percentile of qualified regulars.
  • Zebby Matthews has allowed a home run on 4.34% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
  • He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 90th percentile on.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +483 and this is +475. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 3

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs

Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics · first pitch 4:06 PM ET

+255at Bovada

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 home runs in 23% of 136 games this season and 40% across the last ten. He faces Jeffrey Springs.

  • Alonso barrels the ball at the 92nd percentile of qualified regulars.
  • Jeffrey Springs has allowed a home run on 5.69% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
  • He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 82nd percentile on.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +270 and this is +255. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is recorded with the exact price and book shown, at a flat stake, from the moment it was published.

Also today: Best MLB hits props for Sunday, and today's full card.

Every prop on tonight’s boardThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Sunday, August 30. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Aug 30, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.