STEEZANOMICS.

MLB PLAYER PROPS · Monday, August 31

Best MLB Home Run Props, Monday August 31

3 selections from 18 MLB home run props that cleared our form and pricing filters on tonight's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 50-53-7 at -4.8% ROI since Aug 9. Every pick, graded, losers included.

PickPriceBookWhy
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs+350theScore Betover in 40% of his last ten; Devers barrels the ball at the 78th percentile of qualified regulars
Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 Home Runs+450theScore Betover in 20% of his last ten; Montgomery barrels the ball at the 86th percentile of qualified regulars
Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 Home Runs+600Fanaticsover in 20% of his last ten; Benintendi barrels the ball at the 62nd percentile of qualified regulars

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs

San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves · first pitch 6:05 PM ET

+350at theScore Bet

Rafael Devers has gone over 0.5 home runs in 20% of 137 games this season and 40% across the last ten. He faces Bryce Elder.

  • Devers barrels the ball at the 78th percentile of qualified regulars.
  • Bryce Elder has allowed a home run on 3.63% of the batters he has faced, above the league rate of 3.5%.
  • He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 96th percentile on.

The case against

The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +344 against the +350 shown. That is a market comparison rather than our own probability, so treat it as context and not as a verdict.

The last ten (40%) sits a long way from the season rate (20%), so this leans on a streak continuing rather than on a settled level.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 2

Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 Home Runs

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros · first pitch 8:11 PM ET

+450at theScore Bet

Colson Montgomery has gone over 0.5 home runs in 21% of 128 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Peter Lambert.

  • Montgomery barrels the ball at the 86th percentile of qualified regulars.
  • He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 90th percentile on.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +477 and this is +450, giving up roughly 4.6%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Peter Lambert has allowed a home run on 2.39% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 3

Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 Home Runs

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros · first pitch 8:11 PM ET

+600at Fanatics

Andrew Benintendi has gone over 0.5 home runs in 12% of 119 games this season and 20% across the last ten. He faces Peter Lambert.

  • Benintendi barrels the ball at the 62nd percentile of qualified regulars.
  • He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 72nd percentile on.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +616 and this is +600. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

Peter Lambert has allowed a home run on 2.39% of the batters he has faced, below the league rate of 3.5%.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is recorded with the exact price and book shown, at a flat stake, from the moment it was published.

Also today: Best MLB hits props for Monday, and today's full card.

Every prop on tonight’s boardThe record

Built from the Lab's board for Monday, August 31. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Aug 31, 10:30 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.