MLB PLAYER PROPS · Friday, August 28

Best MLB Hits Props, Friday August 28

3 selections from 28 MLB hits props that cleared our form and pricing filters on tonight's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.

Our graded card is 50-53-7 at -4.8% ROI since Aug 9. Every pick, graded, losers included.

Pick	Price	Book	Why
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Hits	+140	theScore Bet	under in 50% of his last ten; Shane McClanahan has allowed hard contact on 41.7% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Hits	+105	Fanatics	under in 60% of his last ten; Mullins hits the ball hard at only the 16th percentile of qualified regulars
Brady House Under 0.5 Hits	+135	bet365	under in 50% of his last ten; Eury Pérez has allowed hard contact on 38.7% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark

The reads behind them

Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.

Angle 1

Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Hits

San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays · first pitch 7:11 PM ET

+140at theScore Bet

Xander Bogaerts has gone under 0.5 hits in 46% of 127 games this season and 50% across the last ten. He faces Shane McClanahan.

Shane McClanahan has allowed hard contact on 41.7% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
He bats right-handed into a left-hander, a split he ranks in the 20th percentile on.
Shane McClanahan carries a 3.10 ERA and a .209 average against over 107.1 innings.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +145 and this is +140, giving up roughly 2.2%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 2

Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Hits

San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays · first pitch 7:11 PM ET

+105at Fanatics

Cedric Mullins has gone under 0.5 hits in 44% of 112 games this season and 60% across the last ten. He faces Casey Mize.

Mullins hits the ball hard at only the 16th percentile of qualified regulars.
Casey Mize has allowed hard contact on 37.5% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
Casey Mize carries a 3.44 ERA and a .227 average against over 104.2 innings.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +107 and this is +105, giving up roughly 0.7%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

He bats left-handed into a right-hander, a split he ranks in the 70th percentile on.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

Angle 3

Brady House Under 0.5 Hits

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals · first pitch 6:46 PM ET

+135at bet365

Brady House has gone under 0.5 hits in 37% of 70 games this season and 50% across the last ten. He faces Eury Pérez.

Eury Pérez has allowed hard contact on 38.7% of balls in play, below the 42% league mark.
Eury Pérez carries a 3.17 ERA and a .199 average against over 127.2 innings.

The case against

The price is worse than the market's own number. The books quoting this line imply a fair price around +141 and this is +135, giving up roughly 2.3%. The form read has to be right by more than that gap.

House hits the ball hard at the 86th percentile of qualified regulars.

This game has rolled off the board. Open tonight's slate

What this is, and what it is not

These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is tracked as its own cohort.

Where the record lives: the Lab's card is graded in public, every pick and every loss, on the results page. Each prop above is recorded with the exact price and book shown, at a flat stake, from the moment it was published.

Also today: Best MLB hits props for Friday, and today's full card.

Every prop on tonight’s board The record

Built from the Lab's board for Friday, August 28. Prices were read across every book quoting each line at Aug 28, 10:35 AM ET and are frozen at those numbers. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.