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Carson Kelly
CHCbats R9th in the order · projectedMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs7:41 PMWrigley Field
facingJacob Misiorowski1.73 ERA · 13.23 K/9 · 0.75 WHIP · 151.0 IPRHP · xSLG against .250 (league avg .386) · xBA against .168 (league avg .239)
Kelly at the platexSLG .378SLG .393xBA .242
Total Bases
98 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Jacob Misiorowski Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xSLG against.250.299
2nd percentileleague avg .386571 batters facedvs RHB · 8th pctseason .250 (2nd)230 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xBA against.168.204
2nd percentileleague avg .239571 batters facedvs RHB · 13th pctseason .168 (2nd)230 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
AVG against.150.195
league avg .244-0.094 vs league25 startsvs RHBseason .150248 batters facedneutralneutral
hard-hit% allowed33.6%33.6%
19th percentileleague avg 38.2%572 batters facedvs RHB · 19th pctseason 33.6% (19th)152 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed3.6%4.0%
6th percentileleague avg 7.4%572 batters facedvs RHB · 8th pctseason 3.6% (6th)152 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmJacob Misiorowski: total bases allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | TB | TB/BF | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 248 | 68 | 0.27 | .294 |
| vs LHB | 323 | 59 | 0.18 | .201 |
| on the road ● | 257 | 49 | 0.19 | .209 |
| at home | 314 | 78 | 0.25 | .268 |
| season | 571 | 127 | 0.22 | .242 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Jacob Misiorowski, career0 total bases in 6 AB (.000), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 |
| career | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 |
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
xSLG.378.338
48th percentileleague avg .386369 PAvs RHP · 23rd pctseason .378 (48th)214 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
SLG.393.322
43rd percentileleague avg .400369 PAvs RHP · 7th pctseason .393 (43rd)240 PAneutralsupports UNDER
xBA.242.236
47th percentileleague avg .240369 PAvs RHP · 40th pctseason .242 (47th)214 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
AVG.262.234
69th percentileleague avg .244369 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason .262 (69th)240 PAsupports OVERsupports UNDER
xISO.136.102
47th percentileleague avg .146369 PAvs RHP · 20th pctseason .136 (47th)214 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
hard-hit%36.2%32.2%
34th percentileleague avg 38.9%369 PAvs RHP · 19th pctseason 36.2% (34th)177 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel rate5.6%2.8%
33rd percentileleague avg 7.8%369 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 5.6% (33rd)177 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%21.3%22.6%
26th percentileleague avg 23.6%369 PAvs RHP · 39th pctseason 21.3% (26th)177 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Total Bases by split
| G | PA | TB | TB/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 64 | 226 | 73 | 1.14 | .363 | 56% (36/64) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 56 | 1.65 | .441 | 71% (24/34) |
| at home ● | 49 | 183 | 67 | 1.37 | .419 | 63% (31/49) |
| on the road | 49 | 186 | 62 | 1.27 | .369 | 59% (29/49) |
| season | 98 | 369 | 129 | 1.32 | .393 | 61% (60/98) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | TB/PA | BBE | xSLG | xISO | barrel | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 240 | 28.7% | 177 | .338 | .102 | 2.8% | 85.7 |
| vs LHP | 129 | 46.5% | 91 | .453 | .199 | 11.0% | 90.0 |
| at home ● | 183 | 36.6% | 129 | .390 | .132 | 5.4% | 87.4 |
| on the road | 186 | 33.3% | 139 | .366 | .139 | 5.8% | 87.0 |
| season | 369 | 35.0% | 268 | .378 | .136 | 5.6% | 87.2 |
0.5line
OVER-122ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+107no market fair50% boost+123no market fair
UNDER-108ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+120no market fair50% boost+139no market fair
Hits
98 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Jacob Misiorowski Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.168.204
2nd percentileleague avg .239571 batters facedvs RHB · 13th pctseason .168 (2nd)230 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
AVG against.150.195
league avg .244-0.094 vs league25 startsvs RHBseason .150248 batters facedneutralneutral
K%38.9%31.5%
99th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%571 batters facedvs RHB · 96th pctseason 38.9% (99th)248 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
whiff%37.6%30.0%
99th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%571 batters facedvs RHB · 83rd pctseason 37.6% (99th)466 swingssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmJacob Misiorowski: hits allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | H/BF | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 248 | 45 | 18.1% | .195 |
| vs LHB | 323 | 34 | 10.5% | .116 |
| on the road ● | 257 | 33 | 12.8% | .141 |
| at home | 314 | 46 | 14.6% | .158 |
| season | 571 | 79 | 13.8% | .150 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Jacob Misiorowski, career0 hits in 6 AB (.000), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 |
| career | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 |
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
xBA.242.236
47th percentileleague avg .240369 PAvs RHP · 40th pctseason .242 (47th)214 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
AVG.262.234
69th percentileleague avg .244369 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason .262 (69th)240 PAsupports OVERsupports UNDER
zone contact%90.3%90.9%
90th percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 84.0%369 PAvs RHP · 92nd pctseason 90.3% (90th)274 in-zone swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%19.5%18.0%
19th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%369 PAvs RHP · 13th pctseason 19.5% (19th)388 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
K%16.3%15.4%
16th percentile for strikeout rateleague avg 22.5%369 PAvs RHP · 13th pctseason 16.3% (16th)240 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
line-drive%21.3%22.6%
26th percentileleague avg 23.6%369 PAvs RHP · 39th pctseason 21.3% (26th)177 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Hits by split
| G | AB | H | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 64 | 201 | 49 | .244 | 56% (36/64) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 127 | 37 | .291 | 71% (24/34) |
| at home ● | 49 | 160 | 47 | .294 | 63% (31/49) |
| on the road | 49 | 168 | 39 | .232 | 59% (29/49) |
| season | 98 | 328 | 86 | .262 | 61% (60/98) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | H/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 240 | 20.8% | 177 | .236 | 22.6% | 29.9% |
| vs LHP | 129 | 27.9% | 91 | .254 | 18.7% | 34.1% |
| at home ● | 183 | 25.7% | 129 | .258 | 26.4% | 34.1% |
| on the road | 186 | 21.0% | 139 | .227 | 16.6% | 28.8% |
| season | 369 | 23.3% | 268 | — | 21.3% | 31.3% |
0.5line
OVER-117ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+111no market fair50% boost+128no market fair
UNDER-104ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+125no market fair50% boost+144no market fair
RBIs
98 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Jacob Misiorowski Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA2.01—
no split for this stat1st percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.17571 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xSLG against.250.299
2nd percentileleague avg .386571 batters facedvs RHB · 8th pctseason .250 (2nd)230 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed3.6%4.0%
6th percentileleague avg 7.4%572 batters facedvs RHB · 8th pctseason 3.6% (6th)152 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%6.1%6.0%
14th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.5%571 batters facedvs RHB · 12th pctseason 6.1% (14th)248 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmJacob Misiorowski: rbis allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | HR | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 248 | 45 | 7 | .294 |
| vs LHB | 323 | 34 | 6 | .201 |
| on the road ● | 257 | 33 | 3 | .209 |
| at home | 314 | 46 | 10 | .268 |
| season | 571 | 79 | 13 | .242 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Jacob Misiorowski, career0 RBI in 6 PA, across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 |
| career | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 |
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
RBI per game0.530.55
76th percentileleague avg 0.4498 gamesvs RHP · 78th pctseason 0.53 (76th)64 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
xSLG.378.338
48th percentileleague avg .386369 PAvs RHP · 23rd pctseason .378 (48th)214 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
hard-hit%36.2%32.2%
34th percentileleague avg 38.9%369 PAvs RHP · 19th pctseason 36.2% (34th)177 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel rate5.6%2.8%
33rd percentileleague avg 7.8%369 PAvs RHP · 10th pctseason 5.6% (33rd)177 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: RBIs by split
| G | PA | RBI | RBI/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 64 | 226 | 35 | 0.55 | .363 | 30% (19/64) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 17 | 0.50 | .441 | 29% (10/34) |
| at home ● | 49 | 183 | 32 | 0.65 | .419 | 33% (16/49) |
| on the road | 49 | 186 | 20 | 0.41 | .369 | 27% (13/49) |
| season | 98 | 369 | 52 | 0.53 | .393 | 30% (29/98) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | RBI/PA | BBE | xSLG | barrel | hard hit | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 240 | 11.7% | 177 | .338 | 2.8% | 32.2% | 85.7 |
| vs LHP | 129 | 18.6% | 91 | .453 | 11.0% | 44.0% | 90.0 |
| at home ● | 183 | 17.5% | 129 | .390 | 5.4% | 40.3% | 87.4 |
| on the road | 186 | 10.8% | 139 | .366 | 5.8% | 32.4% | 87.0 |
| season | 369 | — | 268 | .378 | 5.6% | 36.2% | 87.2 |
0.5line
OVER+260ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+338no market fair50% boost+390no market fair
UNDER-425ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-327no market fair50% boost-283no market fair
Runs
98 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Jacob Misiorowski Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA2.01—
no split for this stat1st percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.17571 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xBA against.168.204
2nd percentileleague avg .239571 batters facedvs RHB · 13th pctseason .168 (2nd)230 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%6.1%6.0%
14th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.5%571 batters facedvs RHB · 12th pctseason 6.1% (14th)248 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmJacob Misiorowski: runs allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | BB | OBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 248 | 45 | 15 | .250 |
| vs LHB | 323 | 34 | 20 | .189 |
| on the road ● | 257 | 33 | 18 | .218 |
| at home | 314 | 46 | 17 | .214 |
| season | 571 | 79 | 35 | — |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Jacob Misiorowski, career6 PA across 2 seasons. This career line carries no runs column
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 |
| career | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 |
This career line carries no runs column, so nothing here speaks directly to a runs market.
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
runs per game0.510.45
67th percentileleague avg 0.4698 gamesvs RHP · 48th pctseason 0.51 (67th)64 gamessupports OVERneutral
xwOBA.314—
no split for this stat56th percentileleague avg .310369 PAno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
sprint speed25.8—
no split for this stat13th percentileleague avg 27.4369 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xBA.242.236
47th percentileleague avg .240369 PAvs RHP · 40th pctseason .242 (47th)214 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
BB%10.3%9.6%
69th percentileleague avg 8.8%369 PAvs RHP · 61st pctseason 10.3% (69th)240 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Runs by split
| G | PA | R | R/G | OBP | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 64 | 226 | 29 | 0.45 | .327 | 36% (23/64) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 143 | 21 | 0.62 | .371 | 47% (16/34) |
| at home ● | 49 | 183 | 25 | 0.51 | .383 | 39% (19/49) |
| on the road | 49 | 186 | 25 | 0.51 | .306 | 41% (20/49) |
| season | 98 | 369 | 50 | 0.51 | .344 | 40% (39/98) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | R/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 240 | — | 177 | .236 | 22.6% | 29.9% | 85.7 |
| vs LHP | 129 | — | 91 | .254 | 18.7% | 34.1% | 90.0 |
| at home ● | 183 | 13.7% | 129 | .258 | 26.4% | 34.1% | 87.4 |
| on the road | 186 | 13.4% | 139 | .227 | 16.6% | 28.8% | 87.0 |
| season | 369 | — | 268 | — | 21.3% | 31.3% | 87.2 |
0.5line
OVER+178ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+231no market fair50% boost+267no market fair
UNDER-270ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-208no market fair50% boost-180no market fair
Singles
98 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Jacob Misiorowski Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.168.204
2nd percentileleague avg .239571 batters facedvs RHB · 13th pctseason .168 (2nd)230 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
K%38.9%31.5%
99th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%571 batters facedvs RHB · 96th pctseason 38.9% (99th)248 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
whiff%37.6%30.0%
99th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%571 batters facedvs RHB · 83rd pctseason 37.6% (99th)466 swingssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmJacob Misiorowski: singles allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | 1B | 1B/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHB ● | 248 | 36 | 14.5% |
| vs LHB | 323 | 22 | 6.8% |
| on the road ● | 257 | 24 | 9.3% |
| at home | 314 | 34 | 10.8% |
| season | 571 | 58 | 10.2% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadCarson Kelly vs Jacob Misiorowski, career0 singles in 6 AB (.000), across 2 seasons. Limited context, not decisive
| season | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 |
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 |
| career | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 |
Carson Kelly Breakdown · batter data
xBA.242.236
47th percentileleague avg .240369 PAvs RHP · 40th pctseason .242 (47th)214 at-batsneutralsupports UNDER
zone contact%90.3%90.9%
90th percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 84.0%369 PAvs RHP · 92nd pctseason 90.3% (90th)274 in-zone swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
whiff%19.5%18.0%
19th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%369 PAvs RHP · 13th pctseason 19.5% (19th)388 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
line-drive%21.3%22.6%
26th percentileleague avg 23.6%369 PAvs RHP · 39th pctseason 21.3% (26th)177 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
sprint speed25.8—
no split for this stat13th percentileleague avg 27.4369 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
The MatchupCarson Kelly: Singles by split
| G | AB | 1B | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 64 | 201 | 37 | .244 | 45% (29/64) |
| vs LHP | 34 | 127 | 26 | .291 | 53% (18/34) |
| at home ● | 49 | 160 | 37 | .294 | 55% (27/49) |
| on the road | 49 | 168 | 26 | .232 | 41% (20/49) |
| season | 98 | 328 | 63 | .262 | 48% (47/98) |
● tonight's split
The BatCarson Kelly: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | 1B/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 240 | 16.3% | 177 | .236 | 22.6% | 29.9% |
| vs LHP | 129 | 18.6% | 91 | .254 | 18.7% | 34.1% |
| at home ● | 183 | 20.2% | 129 | .258 | 26.4% | 34.1% |
| on the road | 186 | 14.0% | 139 | .227 | 16.6% | 28.8% |
| season | 369 | 17.1% | 268 | — | 21.3% | 31.3% |
0.5line
OVER+132ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+172no market fair50% boost+198no market fair
UNDER-200ProphetXmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-154no market fair50% boost-133no market fair
Hitters on the prop boardMilwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubssorted by the focused market, not batting order
odds snapshot · feeds refreshed 7:00 PM ET · not live pricing