These are the prices from a snapshot taken at 7:00 PM EDT on Wed, Sep 2. Nothing has been re-pulled since. Check your book before acting on anything here.
Nathan Church
STLbats L8th in the orderSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers10:11 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
facingYoshinobu Yamamoto2.56 ERA · 8.72 K/9 · 0.89 WHIP · 158.0 IPRHP · HR/PA allowed 2.6% (league avg 2.9%) · barrel% allowed 6.3% (league avg 7.4%)
Church at the plateHR/PA 2.6%barrel rate 6.1%hard-hit% 29.7%
Home Runs
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
HR/PA allowed2.6%2.5%
44th percentileleague avg 2.9%607 batters facedvs LHB · 40th pctseason 2.6% (44th)321 batters facedneutralsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed6.3%6.5%
32nd percentileleague avg 7.4%607 batters facedvs LHB · 34th pctseason 6.3% (32nd)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit% allowed36.3%35.2%
35th percentileleague avg 38.2%607 batters facedvs LHB · 28th pctseason 36.3% (35th)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
fly-ball% allowed23.5%21.8%
25th percentileleague avg 26.6%607 batters facedvs LHB · 17th pctseason 23.5% (25th)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xSLG against.340.342
22nd percentileleague avg .386607 batters facedvs LHB · 23rd pctseason .340 (22nd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: home runs allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | HR | HR/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 8 | 2.5% |
| vs RHB | 286 | 8 | 2.8% |
| at home ● | 324 | 10 | 3.1% |
| on the road | 283 | 6 | 2.1% |
| season | 607 | 16 | 2.6% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
HR/PA2.6%2.6%
42nd percentileleague avg 3.0%388 PAvs RHP · 43rd pctseason 2.6% (42nd)305 PAneutralneutral
barrel rate6.1%5.7%
38th percentileleague avg 7.8%388 PAvs RHP · 33rd pctseason 6.1% (38th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit%29.7%31.3%
13th percentileleague avg 38.9%388 PAvs RHP · 17th pctseason 29.7% (13th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
fly-ball%22.9%23.9%
26th percentileleague avg 26.8%388 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason 22.9% (26th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xSLG.360.359
35th percentileleague avg .386387 PAvs RHP · 34th pctseason .360 (35th)287 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xISO.120.122
34th percentileleague avg .146387 PAvs RHP · 35th pctseason .120 (34th)287 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
avg exit velo84.1 mph85.5 mph
9th percentileleague avg 88.0 mph388 PAvs RHP · 17th pctseason 84.1 mph (9th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupNathan Church: Home Runs by split
| G | PA | HR | HR/PA | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 8 | 2.6% | .389 | 9% (7/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 2 | 2.5% | .274 | 8% (2/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 6 | 3.0% | .392 | 11% (6/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 4 | 2.2% | .335 | 6% (3/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 10 | 2.6% | .365 | 8% (9/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | HR/PA | BBE | barrel | xSLG | xISO | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | 2.6% | 230 | 5.7% | .359 | .122 | 85.5 |
| vs LHP | 82 | 2.4% | 63 | 7.9% | .333 | .102 | 79.2 |
| on the road ● | 200 | 3.0% | 147 | 4.8% | .348 | .114 | 84.6 |
| at home | 187 | 2.1% | 146 | 7.5% | .359 | .121 | 83.6 |
| season | 387 | 2.6% | 293 | 6.1% | .353 | .117 | 84.1 |
0.5line
OVER+1329NoVigfair +1020 · +27.6% vs fair
30% boost+1728+62.7% vs market · +53.7% vs season50% boost+1993+86.3% vs market · +76.1% vs season
UNDER-1567NoVigfair -1020 · -3.1% vs fair
30% boost-1205-1.3% vs market · -0.8% vs season50% boost-1045-0.2% vs market · +0.4% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 1%over rate
OVER+14000BetRiversmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+18200no market fair50% boost+21000no market fair
Total Bases
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xSLG against.340.342
22nd percentileleague avg .386607 batters facedvs LHB · 23rd pctseason .340 (22nd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xBA against.217.215
23rd percentileleague avg .239607 batters facedvs LHB · 21st pctseason .217 (23rd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
AVG against.187.182
league avg .244-0.057 vs league24 startsvs LHBseason .187321 batters facedneutralneutral
hard-hit% allowed36.3%35.2%
35th percentileleague avg 38.2%607 batters facedvs LHB · 28th pctseason 36.3% (35th)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed6.3%6.5%
32nd percentileleague avg 7.4%607 batters facedvs LHB · 34th pctseason 6.3% (32nd)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: total bases allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | TB | TB/BF | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 87 | 0.27 | .293 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 87 | 0.30 | .328 |
| at home ● | 324 | 103 | 0.32 | .346 |
| on the road | 283 | 71 | 0.25 | .269 |
| season | 607 | 174 | 0.29 | .310 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
xSLG.360.359
35th percentileleague avg .386387 PAvs RHP · 34th pctseason .360 (35th)287 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
SLG.365.379
25th percentileleague avg .400387 PAvs RHP · 32nd pctseason .365 (25th)305 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xBA.240.237
44th percentileleague avg .240387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .240 (44th)287 at-batsneutralneutral
AVG.239.245
39th percentileleague avg .244387 PAvs RHP · 47th pctseason .239 (39th)305 PAsupports UNDERneutral
xISO.120.122
34th percentileleague avg .146387 PAvs RHP · 35th pctseason .120 (34th)287 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit%29.7%31.3%
13th percentileleague avg 38.9%388 PAvs RHP · 17th pctseason 29.7% (13th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel rate6.1%5.7%
38th percentileleague avg 7.8%388 PAvs RHP · 33rd pctseason 6.1% (38th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%20.5%22.6%
17th percentileleague avg 23.6%388 PAvs RHP · 39th pctseason 20.5% (17th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupNathan Church: Total Bases by split
| G | PA | TB | TB/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 110 | 1.34 | .389 | 62% (51/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 20 | 0.80 | .274 | 40% (10/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 73 | 1.35 | .392 | 61% (33/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 57 | 1.08 | .335 | 53% (28/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 130 | 1.21 | .365 | 57% (61/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | TB/PA | BBE | xSLG | xISO | barrel | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | 35.1% | 230 | .359 | .122 | 5.7% | 85.5 |
| vs LHP | 82 | 28.0% | 63 | .333 | .102 | 7.9% | 79.2 |
| on the road ● | 200 | 36.5% | 147 | .348 | .114 | 4.8% | 84.6 |
| at home | 187 | 30.5% | 146 | .359 | .121 | 7.5% | 83.6 |
| season | 387 | 33.6% | 293 | .353 | .117 | 6.1% | 84.1 |
0.5line
OVER-120BetMGMfair -113 · -2.6% vs fair
30% boost+108+10.6% vs market · +18.8% vs season50% boost+125+19.5% vs market · +28.3% vs season
UNDER+105ProphetXfair +111 · -2.8% vs fair
30% boost+136+12.1% vs market · +1.7% vs season50% boost+157+22.1% vs market · +10.7% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 30%L20 30%SZN 30%over rate
OVER+266DraftKingspooled fair +258
30% boost+346pooled fair50% boost+399pooled fair
UNDER-320bet365fair -258 · -5.4% vs fair
30% boost-246+1.4% vs market · -1.4% vs season50% boost-213+5.9% vs market · +2.9% vs season
2.5lineL5 0%L10 20%L20 10%SZN 15%over rate
OVER+600DraftKingsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+780no market fair50% boost+900no market fair
3.5lineL5 0%L10 20%L20 10%SZN 11%over rate
OVER+950FanDuelmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1235no market fair50% boost+1425no market fair
4.5lineL5 0%L10 10%L20 5%SZN 6%over rate
OVER+2200FanDuelmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+2860no market fair50% boost+3300no market fair
Hits
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.217.215
23rd percentileleague avg .239607 batters facedvs LHB · 21st pctseason .217 (23rd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
AVG against.187.182
league avg .244-0.057 vs league24 startsvs LHBseason .187321 batters facedneutralneutral
K%25.2%25.5%
70th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%607 batters facedvs LHB · 73rd pctseason 25.2% (70th)321 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
whiff%26.7%24.2%
63rd percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%607 batters facedvs LHB · 45th pctseason 26.7% (63rd)627 swingssupports UNDERneutral
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: hits allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | H/BF | AVG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 54 | 16.8% | .182 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 51 | 17.8% | .192 |
| at home ● | 324 | 57 | 17.6% | .191 |
| on the road | 283 | 48 | 17.0% | .182 |
| season | 607 | 105 | 17.3% | .187 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
xBA.240.237
44th percentileleague avg .240387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .240 (44th)287 at-batsneutralneutral
AVG.239.245
39th percentileleague avg .244387 PAvs RHP · 47th pctseason .239 (39th)305 PAsupports UNDERneutral
zone contact%84.6%83.1%
52nd percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 84.0%387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason 84.6% (52nd)390 in-zone swingsneutralneutral
whiff%20.9%21.8%
25th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%387 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason 20.9% (25th)666 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
K%18.1%18.7%
26th percentile for strikeout rateleague avg 22.5%387 PAvs RHP · 29th pctseason 18.1% (26th)305 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER
line-drive%20.5%22.6%
17th percentileleague avg 23.6%388 PAvs RHP · 39th pctseason 20.5% (17th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupNathan Church: Hits by split
| G | AB | H | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 283 | 72 | .254 | 62% (51/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 73 | 13 | .178 | 40% (10/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 186 | 46 | .247 | 61% (33/54) |
| at home | 53 | 170 | 39 | .229 | 53% (28/53) |
| season | 107 | 356 | 85 | .239 | 57% (61/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | H/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | 22.6% | 230 | .237 | 22.6% | 35.6% |
| vs LHP | 82 | 19.5% | 63 | .231 | 12.7% | 27.0% |
| on the road ● | 200 | 23.0% | 147 | .234 | 21.8% | 34.7% |
| at home | 187 | 20.9% | 146 | .237 | 19.2% | 32.9% |
| season | 387 | 22.0% | 293 | — | 20.5% | 33.8% |
0.5line
C+★ FORMleans over
- the over has hit 71% blended (L10 80%, season 57%) against a 50% priced probability
- counterpoint - faces Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP): xBA against .217 - 23rd percentile for xBA against
basis: 107 games this season
OVER-107ProphetXfair -101 · -2.7% vs fair
30% boost+121+11.4% vs market · +26.3% vs season50% boost+140+20.8% vs market · +36.9% vs season
UNDER+110bet365fair +101 · +4.5% vs fair
30% boost+143+21% vs market · +4.5% vs season50% boost+165+32% vs market · +13.9% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 20%L20 20%SZN 20%over rate
OVER+531DraftKingsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+690no market fair50% boost+796no market fair
UNDER-750theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-577no market fair50% boost-500no market fair
2.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 3%over rate
OVER+3000Hard Rockmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+3900no market fair50% boost+4500no market fair
3.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 0%over rate
OVER+6000BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+7800no market fair50% boost+9000no market fair
H+R+RBI
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.217.215
23rd percentileleague avg .239607 batters facedvs LHB · 21st pctseason .217 (23rd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xERA3.04—
no split for this stat12th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.17607 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xSLG against.340.342
22nd percentileleague avg .386607 batters facedvs LHB · 23rd pctseason .340 (22nd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%5.9%6.2%
11th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.5%607 batters facedvs LHB · 15th pctseason 5.9% (11th)321 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
K%25.2%25.5%
70th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%607 batters facedvs LHB · 73rd pctseason 25.2% (70th)321 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: h+r+rbi allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | TB | OBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 54 | 87 | .240 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 51 | 87 | .245 |
| at home ● | 324 | 57 | 103 | .250 |
| on the road | 283 | 48 | 71 | .233 |
| season | 607 | 105 | 174 | — |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
H+R+RBI per game1.641.78
39th percentileleague avg 1.74107 gamesvs RHP · 51st pctseason 1.64 (39th)82 gamessupports UNDERneutral
xwOBA.284—
no split for this stat22nd percentileleague avg .310387 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xBA.240.237
44th percentileleague avg .240387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .240 (44th)287 at-batsneutralneutral
SLG.365.379
25th percentileleague avg .400387 PAvs RHP · 32nd pctseason .365 (25th)305 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupNathan Church: H+R+RBI by split
| G | PA | H | R | RBI | H+R+RBI/G | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 72 | 37 | 37 | 1.78 | 72% (59/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1.16 | 48% (12/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 46 | 26 | 24 | 1.78 | 69% (37/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 39 | 18 | 22 | 1.49 | 64% (34/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 85 | 44 | 46 | 1.64 | 66% (71/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | H/PA | BBE | xBA | xSLG | barrel | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | 22.6% | 230 | .237 | .359 | 5.7% | 85.5 |
| vs LHP | 82 | 19.5% | 63 | .231 | .333 | 7.9% | 79.2 |
| on the road ● | 200 | 23.0% | 147 | .234 | .348 | 4.8% | 84.6 |
| at home | 187 | 20.9% | 146 | .237 | .359 | 7.5% | 83.6 |
| season | 387 | 22.0% | 293 | — | .353 | 6.1% | 84.1 |
0.5line
B+★ FORMleans over
- the over has hit 80% blended (L10 90%, season 66%) against a 55% priced probability
- counterpoint - his xwOBA of .284 - 22nd percentile for xwOBA
basis: 107 games this season
OVER-126DraftKingsfair -121 · -1.9% vs fair
30% boost+103+11.1% vs market · +34.8% vs season50% boost+119+19.8% vs market · +45.3% vs season
UNDER+135bet365fair +121 · +6.2% vs fair
30% boost+176+24.5% vs market · -7.3% vs season50% boost+203+36.7% vs market · +1.8% vs season
1.5lineL5 40%L10 60%L20 55%SZN 40%over rate
OVER+153NoVigmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+199no market fair50% boost+230no market fair
RBIs
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA3.04—
no split for this stat12th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.17607 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xSLG against.340.342
22nd percentileleague avg .386607 batters facedvs LHB · 23rd pctseason .340 (22nd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed6.3%6.5%
32nd percentileleague avg 7.4%607 batters facedvs LHB · 34th pctseason 6.3% (32nd)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%5.9%6.2%
11th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.5%607 batters facedvs LHB · 15th pctseason 5.9% (11th)321 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: rbis allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | HR | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 54 | 8 | .293 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 51 | 8 | .328 |
| at home ● | 324 | 57 | 10 | .346 |
| on the road | 283 | 48 | 6 | .269 |
| season | 607 | 105 | 16 | .310 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
RBI per game0.430.45
46th percentileleague avg 0.44107 gamesvs RHP · 54th pctseason 0.43 (46th)82 gamesneutralneutral
xSLG.360.359
35th percentileleague avg .386387 PAvs RHP · 34th pctseason .360 (35th)287 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit%29.7%31.3%
13th percentileleague avg 38.9%388 PAvs RHP · 17th pctseason 29.7% (13th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel rate6.1%5.7%
38th percentileleague avg 7.8%388 PAvs RHP · 33rd pctseason 6.1% (38th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupNathan Church: RBIs by split
| G | PA | RBI | RBI/G | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 37 | 0.45 | .389 | 29% (24/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 9 | 0.36 | .274 | 20% (5/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 24 | 0.44 | .392 | 24% (13/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 22 | 0.42 | .335 | 30% (16/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 46 | 0.43 | .365 | 27% (29/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | RBI/PA | BBE | xSLG | barrel | hard hit | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | 11.8% | 230 | .359 | 5.7% | 31.3% | 85.5 |
| vs LHP | 82 | 13.4% | 63 | .333 | 7.9% | 23.8% | 79.2 |
| on the road ● | 200 | 12.0% | 147 | .348 | 4.8% | 29.3% | 84.6 |
| at home | 187 | 12.3% | 146 | .359 | 7.5% | 30.1% | 83.6 |
| season | 387 | — | 293 | .353 | 6.1% | 29.7% | 84.1 |
0.5line
B+★ FORMleans over
- the over has hit 47% blended (L10 60%, season 27%) against a 22% priced probability
- the ProphetX price beats the devigged fair by 2.9%
- counterpoint - faces Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP): xERA 3.04 - 12th percentile for expected ERA
- the read leans on a recent run - L10 60% vs 27% season
basis: 107 games this season
OVER+375ProphetXfair +361 · +2.9% vs fair
30% boost+488+27.5% vs market · +59.2% vs season50% boost+562+43.8% vs market · +79.6% vs season
UNDER-400bet365fair -377 · -1.2% vs fair
30% boost-308+4.7% vs market · -3.4% vs season50% boost-267+8.6% vs market · +0.2% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 10%L20 10%SZN 10%over rate
OVER+1140DraftKingsmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1482no market fair50% boost+1710no market fair
UNDER-3000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-2308no market fair50% boost-2000no market fair
2.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 4%over rate
OVER+3300BetRiversmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+4290no market fair50% boost+4950no market fair
3.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 2%over rate
OVER+10000FanDuelmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+13000no market fair50% boost+15000no market fair
4.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 0%over rate
OVER+6000BetMGMmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+7800no market fair50% boost+9000no market fair
Runs
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xERA3.04—
no split for this stat12th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.17607 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
xBA against.217.215
23rd percentileleague avg .239607 batters facedvs LHB · 21st pctseason .217 (23rd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
BB%5.9%6.2%
11th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.5%607 batters facedvs LHB · 15th pctseason 5.9% (11th)321 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: runs allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | H | BB | OBP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 54 | 20 | .240 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 51 | 16 | .245 |
| at home ● | 324 | 57 | 20 | .250 |
| on the road | 283 | 48 | 16 | .233 |
| season | 607 | 105 | 36 | — |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
runs per game0.410.45
37th percentileleague avg 0.46107 gamesvs RHP · 48th pctseason 0.41 (37th)82 gamessupports UNDERneutral
xwOBA.284—
no split for this stat22nd percentileleague avg .310387 PAno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
sprint speed28.5—
no split for this stat80th percentileleague avg 27.4387 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
xBA.240.237
44th percentileleague avg .240387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .240 (44th)287 at-batsneutralneutral
BB%5.4%5.2%
15th percentileleague avg 8.8%387 PAvs RHP · 12th pctseason 5.4% (15th)305 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupNathan Church: Runs by split
| G | PA | R | R/G | OBP | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 37 | 0.45 | .292 | 40% (33/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 7 | 0.28 | .241 | 24% (6/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 26 | 0.48 | .300 | 43% (23/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 18 | 0.34 | .261 | 30% (16/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 44 | 0.41 | .281 | 36% (39/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | R/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | — | 230 | .237 | 22.6% | 35.6% | 85.5 |
| vs LHP | 82 | — | 63 | .231 | 12.7% | 27.0% | 79.2 |
| on the road ● | 200 | 13.0% | 147 | .234 | 21.8% | 34.7% | 84.6 |
| at home | 187 | 9.6% | 146 | .237 | 19.2% | 32.9% | 83.6 |
| season | 387 | — | 293 | — | 20.5% | 33.8% | 84.1 |
0.5line
OVER+270DraftKingsfair +275 · -1.3% vs fair
30% boost+351+20.4% vs market · +64.4% vs season50% boost+405+34.8% vs market · +84.1% vs season
UNDER-350BetMGMfair -281 · -5.2% vs fair
30% boost-269+1.1% vs market · -12.8% vs season50% boost-233+5.3% vs market · -9.2% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 5%over rate
OVER+1500theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1950no market fair50% boost+2250no market fair
UNDER-5000theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-3846no market fair50% boost-3333no market fair
Doubles
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xSLG against.340.342
22nd percentileleague avg .386607 batters facedvs LHB · 23rd pctseason .340 (22nd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
hard-hit% allowed36.3%35.2%
35th percentileleague avg 38.2%607 batters facedvs LHB · 28th pctseason 36.3% (35th)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
barrel% allowed6.3%6.5%
32nd percentileleague avg 7.4%607 batters facedvs LHB · 34th pctseason 6.3% (32nd)216 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive% allowed22.6%—
no comparison availableno split for this stat607 batters facedno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: doubles allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | 2B | 2B/BF | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 9 | 2.8% | .293 |
| vs RHB | 286 | 10 | 3.5% | .328 |
| at home ● | 324 | 14 | 4.3% | .346 |
| on the road | 283 | 5 | 1.8% | .269 |
| season | 607 | 19 | 3.1% | .310 |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
2B/PA2.8%3.3%
15th percentileleague avg 4.1%388 PAvs RHP · 25th pctseason 2.8% (15th)305 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xSLG.360.359
35th percentileleague avg .386387 PAvs RHP · 34th pctseason .360 (35th)287 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
xISO.120.122
34th percentileleague avg .146387 PAvs RHP · 35th pctseason .120 (34th)287 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
line-drive%20.5%22.6%
17th percentileleague avg 23.6%388 PAvs RHP · 39th pctseason 20.5% (17th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
sweet-spot%33.8%35.6%
34th percentileleague avg 35.3%388 PAvs RHP · 54th pctseason 33.8% (34th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERneutral
sprint speed28.5—
no split for this stat80th percentileleague avg 27.4387 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
The MatchupNathan Church: Doubles by split
| G | PA | 2B | 2B/PA | SLG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 10 | 3.3% | .389 | 12% (10/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 1 | 1.3% | .274 | 4% (1/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 5 | 2.5% | .392 | 9% (5/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 6 | 3.2% | .335 | 11% (6/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 11 | 2.9% | .365 | 10% (11/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | 2B/PA | BBE | xSLG | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | 3.3% | 230 | .359 | 22.6% | 35.6% |
| vs LHP | 82 | 1.2% | 63 | .333 | 12.7% | 27.0% |
| on the road ● | 200 | 2.5% | 147 | .348 | 21.8% | 34.7% |
| at home | 187 | 3.2% | 146 | .359 | 19.2% | 32.9% |
| season | 387 | 2.8% | 293 | .353 | 20.5% | 33.8% |
0.5line
OVER+675BetMGMfair +623 · +7.2% vs fair
30% boost+878+34.9% vs market · +0.5% vs season50% boost+1012+53.5% vs market · +14.4% vs season
UNDER-990DraftKingsfair -659 · -4.4% vs fair
30% boost-762-1.8% vs market · +1.5% vs season50% boost-6600% vs market · +3.3% vs season
Singles
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
xBA against.217.215
23rd percentileleague avg .239607 batters facedvs LHB · 21st pctseason .217 (23rd)298 at-batssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
K%25.2%25.5%
70th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%607 batters facedvs LHB · 73rd pctseason 25.2% (70th)321 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
whiff%26.7%24.2%
63rd percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%607 batters facedvs LHB · 45th pctseason 26.7% (63rd)627 swingssupports UNDERneutral
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: singles allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | 1B | 1B/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 37 | 11.5% |
| vs RHB | 286 | 32 | 11.2% |
| at home ● | 324 | 32 | 9.9% |
| on the road | 283 | 37 | 13.1% |
| season | 607 | 69 | 11.4% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
xBA.240.237
44th percentileleague avg .240387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .240 (44th)287 at-batsneutralneutral
zone contact%84.6%83.1%
52nd percentile for contact in the zoneleague avg 84.0%387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason 84.6% (52nd)390 in-zone swingsneutralneutral
whiff%20.9%21.8%
25th percentile for swing-and-missleague avg 25.2%387 PAvs RHP · 31st pctseason 20.9% (25th)666 swingssupports OVERsupports OVER
line-drive%20.5%22.6%
17th percentileleague avg 23.6%388 PAvs RHP · 39th pctseason 20.5% (17th)230 batted ballssupports UNDERsupports UNDER
sprint speed28.5—
no split for this stat80th percentileleague avg 27.4387 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
The MatchupNathan Church: Singles by split
| G | AB | 1B | AVG | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 283 | 52 | .254 | 49% (40/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 73 | 10 | .178 | 36% (9/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 186 | 33 | .247 | 48% (26/54) |
| at home | 53 | 170 | 29 | .229 | 43% (23/53) |
| season | 107 | 356 | 62 | .239 | 46% (49/107) |
● tonight's split
The BatNathan Church: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split
| PA | 1B/PA | BBE | xBA | LD% | SS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 305 | 16.1% | 230 | .237 | 22.6% | 35.6% |
| vs LHP | 82 | 15.9% | 63 | .231 | 12.7% | 27.0% |
| on the road ● | 200 | 16.5% | 147 | .234 | 21.8% | 34.7% |
| at home | 187 | 15.5% | 146 | .237 | 19.2% | 32.9% |
| season | 387 | 16.5% | 293 | — | 20.5% | 33.8% |
0.5line
C+★ FORMleans over
- the over has hit 60% blended (L10 70%, season 46%) against a 40% priced probability
- his sprint speed of 28.5 - 80th percentile for sprint speed
- counterpoint - faces Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP): xBA against .217 - 23rd percentile for xBA against
basis: 107 games this season
OVER+145DraftKingsfair +148 · -1% vs fair
30% boost+189+16.6% vs market · +32.1% vs season50% boost+218+28.3% vs market · +45.4% vs season
UNDER-150bet365fair -151 · +0.3% vs fair
30% boost-115+12.4% vs market · +1.2% vs season50% boost-100+20.4% vs market · +8.4% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 10%SZN 11%over rate
OVER+800theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1040no market fair50% boost+1200no market fair
UNDER-1800theScore Betmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost-1385no market fair50% boost-1200no market fair
Walks
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
BB%5.9%6.2%
11th percentile for walks allowedleague avg 8.5%607 batters facedvs LHB · 15th pctseason 5.9% (11th)321 batters facedsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
first-pitch strike%61.9%62.0%
50th percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.9%607 batters facedvs LHB · 52nd pctseason 61.9% (50th)321 first pitchesneutralneutral
BB/92.02.1
league avg 3.4-1.4 vs league24 startsvs LHBseason 2.0321 batters facedneutralneutral
The ArmYoshinobu Yamamoto: walks allowed by splitcounts, and those counts per batter faced
| BF | BB | BB/BF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB ● | 321 | 20 | 6.2% |
| vs RHB | 286 | 16 | 5.6% |
| at home ● | 324 | 20 | 6.2% |
| on the road | 283 | 16 | 5.7% |
| season | 607 | 36 | 5.9% |
● tonight's split · from MLB's own situational splits
Head to HeadNathan Church vs Yoshinobu Yamamotofirst career matchup · no MLB regular-season meetings on record
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
BB%5.4%5.2%
15th percentileleague avg 8.8%387 PAvs RHP · 12th pctseason 5.4% (15th)305 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
chase rate43.2%43.5%
97th percentile for chasing out of the zoneleague avg 30.7%387 PAvs RHP · 97th pctseason 43.2% (97th)634 pitches outside the zonesupports UNDERsupports UNDER
zone swing%72.0%72.9%
league avg 66.9%+5.1% vs league387 PAvs RHPseason 72.0%535 in-zone pitchesneutralneutral
The MatchupNathan Church: Walks by split
| G | PA | BB | BB% | OBP | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 17 | 5.6% | .292 | 20% (16/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 4 | 5.1% | .241 | 12% (3/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 14 | 7.0% | .300 | 22% (12/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 7 | 3.8% | .261 | 13% (7/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 21 | 5.5% | .281 | 18% (19/107) |
● tonight's split
0.5line
OVER+399DraftKingsfair +384 · +3% vs fair
30% boost+519+27.5% vs market · +9.9% vs season50% boost+598+43.9% vs market · +24% vs season
UNDER-550Hard Rockfair -415 · -4.8% vs fair
30% boost-423-0.3% vs market · +1.7% vs season50% boost-367+2.6% vs market · +4.7% vs season
Stolen Bases
107 games loggedline0.5
plate appearances
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Breakdown · opposing pitcher data
SB rate allowed0.6%—
no split for this stat37th percentile for steals allowed per chanceleague avg 1.0%4 of 656 opportunitiesno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
runners test him0.8%—
no split for this stat32nd percentile for runners going per chanceleague avg 1.3%5 of 656 opportunitiesno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only
SB allowed4—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
runners caught1—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
pickoffs0—
no split for this statseason totalno handedness split for this statneutralseason only
Nathan Church Breakdown · batter data
sprint speed28.5—
no split for this stat80th percentileleague avg 27.4387 PAno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only
SB per game0.070.10
60th percentileleague avg 0.07107 gamesvs RHP · 76th pctseason 0.07 (60th)82 gamessupports OVERsupports OVER
xBA.240.237
44th percentileleague avg .240387 PAvs RHP · 41st pctseason .240 (44th)287 at-batsneutralneutral
BB%5.4%5.2%
15th percentileleague avg 8.8%387 PAvs RHP · 12th pctseason 5.4% (15th)305 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER
The MatchupNathan Church: Stolen Bases by split
| G | PA | SB | SB/G | over 0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP ● | 82 | 306 | 8 | 0.10 | 10% (8/82) |
| vs LHP | 25 | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0% (0/25) |
| on the road ● | 54 | 200 | 3 | 0.06 | 6% (3/54) |
| at home | 53 | 185 | 5 | 0.09 | 9% (5/53) |
| season | 107 | 385 | 8 | 0.07 | 7% (8/107) |
● tonight's split
0.5line
OVER+1080DraftKingsfair +933 · +14.2% vs fair
30% boost+1404+45.9% vs market · +12.4% vs season50% boost+1620+66.8% vs market · +28.6% vs season
UNDER-1401bet365fair -984 · -2.7% vs fair
30% boost-1078-0.8% vs market · +1.1% vs season50% boost-934+0.5% vs market · +2.4% vs season
1.5lineL5 0%L10 0%L20 0%SZN 0%over rate
OVER+900NoVigmarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)
30% boost+1170no market fair50% boost+1350no market fair
Hitters on the prop boardSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgerssorted by the focused market, not batting order
odds snapshot · feeds refreshed 7:00 PM ET · not live pricing