NHL PLAYER PROPS · Thursday, October 22
Final. These games have been played; every price is as published.
3 selections from 98 NHL points props across 12 games that cleared our form and pricing filters on Thursday's slate. Each one shows the price, the book quoting it, the matchup behind it, and the reason it might be wrong.
Our graded record is 124-99-6 at +35.4% ROI since Sep 25, as of Nov 1. Every public pick since Sep 25, 2026, losers included.
| Pick | Price | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko Over 0.5 Points | -148 | Bally Bet | over in 80% of his last ten; Kirill Marchenko averages 1.00 points a game through 11 games this season, against 0.47 for forwards (91st percentile of 459 forwards), and 0.88 a game over 76 games last season |
| Adam Fox Over 0.5 Points | -125 | BetMGM | over in 80% of his last ten; Adam Fox averages 0.91 points a game through 11 games this season, against 0.30 for defencemen (95th percentile of 247 defencemen), and 0.96 a game over 55 games last season |
| Erik Karlsson Over 0.5 Points | -136 | FanDuel | over in 80% of his last ten; Erik Karlsson averages 1.10 points a game through 10 games this season, against 0.30 for defencemen (98th percentile of 247 defencemen), and 0.88 a game over 75 games last season |
Form here is 60% of a player's last ten games and 40% of the season, weighed against what the books are charging once the vig is stripped out, and against what the matchup says. A prop only appears when the matchup backs it as well as the form does.
Next best −148 at BetRiversSame 0.5 line
Kirill Marchenko has gone over 0.5 points in 82% of 11 games this season, 70% of his last twenty, 80% of his last ten and 80% of his last five.
Kirill Marchenko averages 1.00 points a game through 11 games this season, against 0.47 for forwards (91st percentile of 459 forwards), and 0.88 a game over 76 games last season.
Kirill Marchenko averages 0.55 power-play points a game through 11 games this season, against 0.12 for forwards (95th percentile of 459 forwards), and 0.30 a game over 76 games last season.
Kirill Marchenko averages 18.7 minutes of ice time a game through 11 games this season, against 14.6 for forwards (85th percentile of 459 forwards), and 18.9 a game over 76 games last season.
Next best −130 at BetOnlineSame 0.5 line
Adam Fox has gone over 0.5 points in 73% of 11 games this season and 80% across the last ten.
Adam Fox averages 0.91 points a game through 11 games this season, against 0.30 for defencemen (95th percentile of 247 defencemen), and 0.96 a game over 55 games last season.
Adam Fox averages 0.27 power-play points a game through 11 games this season, against 0.06 for defencemen (93rd percentile of 247 defencemen), and 0.44 a game over 55 games last season.
Adam Fox averages 21.5 minutes of ice time a game through 11 games this season, against 18.1 for defencemen (80th percentile of 247 defencemen), and 23.6 a game over 55 games last season.
Next best −148 at ProphetXSame 0.5 line
Erik Karlsson has gone over 0.5 points in 80% of 10 games this season, 65% of his last twenty, 80% of his last ten and 80% of his last five.
Erik Karlsson averages 1.10 points a game through 10 games this season, against 0.30 for defencemen (98th percentile of 247 defencemen), and 0.88 a game over 75 games last season.
Erik Karlsson averages 0.50 power-play points a game through 10 games this season, against 0.06 for defencemen (98th percentile of 247 defencemen), and 0.35 a game over 75 games last season.
Erik Karlsson averages 23.1 minutes of ice time a game through 10 games this season, against 18.1 for defencemen (89th percentile of 247 defencemen), and 23.6 a game over 75 games last season.
These are our strongest market-specific props, chosen on the best combination of recent form, season baseline, the matchup itself, and the line actually available. The Lab's card is a separate five-pick slate selected across every market, and it is graded on the public record.
Where the record lives: the Lab's public record starts Sep 25, 2026, the card and the boosts together, with every pick and every loss on the results page. Each prop above is frozen with the exact price and book shown from the moment it was published. These angles are not on that graded record; the card and the boosts are.
Same slate: Best NHL shots on goal props for Thursday.
Built from the Lab's board for Thursday, October 22 and published at Oct 22, 12:12 PM ET. Each price above is the best across every book quoting the line, stamped with when it was last pulled, and frozen at that number. Prices move; check before you bet. The sentences above are generated from the same numbers printed beside them. 19+. If betting stops being fun, ConnexOntario, 1-866-531-2600.
Help us find more readers like you? If you say yes, this browser tells Meta (Facebook and Instagram) once per visit that someone read Steezanomics, so our ads can reach people like you. No name, no email, not which page, nothing you typed. How it works.
When you read a page here we tell Meta (Facebook and Instagram) so we can find readers like you. No name, not which page, nothing you typed. How it works.