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BUFTEBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo BillsSun 1:00 PM
Kincaid on the fieldreceptions per game 3.83targets per game 4.83target share 17.4%
FacingBaltimore Ravensdefence46.7 receiving yards allowed to TEs (2026) · ranks 23 of 32 NFL defences
Prices last pulled 6:18 AM ET
Anytime TD
36 games loggedDalton Kincaid Anytime TD · 36 games logged
8 of 20 (40%) scored a touchdown over his last 20 · to score +220 Bovada · prices from
line0.5
1+ TD
quoted at 0.5: O +220 (Bovada) · no under
9/7vs BAL9/14@ NYJ9/18vs MIA9/28vs NO10/5vs NE10/26@ CAR11/2vs KC11/9@ MIA12/7vs CIN12/14@ NE12/21@ CLE1/4vs NYJ1/11@ JAX1/17@ DEN9/13@ HOU9/17vs DET9/27vs LAC10/4vs NE10/12@ LAR10/18@ LV
latest0 Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · @ LV
TD
8 of 20 (40%) cleared 0.5 over his last 20
red zone touchesno range set0.6 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 50.8last 100.6last 200.6last 300.520260.720250.620240.3all0.5
Anytime TD: Breakdowns
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
red zone touches per game0.500.800.67
SZN75th percentile for mostleague avg 0.3512 games (2025)91st percentileleague avg 0.355 games (last 5)2026 season 0.6782nd percentile for mostleague avg 0.356 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER15/88 TEssupports OVER
red zone targets per game0.751.201.00
SZN74th percentile for mostleague avg 0.5212 games (2025)93rd percentileleague avg 0.505 games (last 5)2026 season 1.0088th percentile for mostleague avg 0.506 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER10/88 TEssupports OVER
receptions per game3.253.603.83
SZN74th percentile for mostleague avg 2.2012 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 2.135 games (last 5)2026 season 3.8385th percentile for mostleague avg 2.136 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER14/88 TEssupports OVER
red zone target share14.1%25.0%20.7%
SZN63rd percentile for highest shareleague avg 11.8%11 games with red zone data (2025)90th percentileleague avg 11.4%5 regular-season games with red zone data (last 5)2026 season 20.7%80th percentile for highest shareleague avg 11.4%6 games with red zone data (2026)supports OVER32/85 TEssupports OVER18/88 TEssupports OVER
red zone rush share0.0%0.0%0.0%
SZN42nd percentile for highest shareleague avg 0.4%12 games with red zone data (2025)48th percentileleague avg 0.1%5 regular-season games with red zone data (last 5)2026 season 0.0%48th percentile for highest shareleague avg 0.1%6 games with red zone data (2026)supports FLAT14/85 TEsneutral5/88 TEsneutral
red zone touch share4.4%8.5%7.7%
SZN59th percentile for highest shareleague avg 4.7%12 games with red zone data (2025)86th percentileleague avg 4.5%5 regular-season games with red zone data (last 5)2026 season 7.7%80th percentile for highest shareleague avg 4.5%6 games with red zone data (2026)supports FLAT35/85 TEssupports OVER17/88 TEssupports OVER
BAL · what this defence allowssee the games
TDs allowed to TEs0.30.80.7
SZN15th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 5 total84th percentileleague avg 0.55 games (last 5)2026 season 0.779th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.57 games (2026) · 5 totalsupports UNDERT-26/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
red zone targets allowed to TEs1.21.41.3
SZN61st percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.217 games (2025) · 21 total65th percentileleague avg 1.35 games (last 5)2026 season 1.363rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 1.37 games (2026) · 9 totalsupports OVERT-11/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-12/32 NFL defencessupports OVER
touchdowns allowed2.42.42.4
SZN55th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.417 games (2025) · 41 total42nd percentileleague avg 2.55 games (last 5)2026 season 2.447th percentile for most allowedleague avg 2.57 games (2026) · 17 totalneutral15/32 NFL defencesneutralT-16/32 NFL defencesneutral
Anytime TD: Head to Head
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs BAL1/3 with a touchdown · 2 seasons
| date | RZ | touch | rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07'25 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| 01/19'25 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 09/29'24 | 0 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
SAME ROLE VS BAL
TE1s vs BAL
Anytime TD · Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1
TE1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games vs BAL · 3 of 6 went over their own line
| DATE | TEAM | PLAYER | TD | SCORED? | OWN LINE | CAR | TGT | REC | SNAPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | IND | 1 | scored | 0.5over | 0 | 5 | 3 | 50 | |
| 9/20 | NO | 0 | no TD | 0.5under | 0 | 4 | 4 | 36 | |
| 9/27 | DAL | 1 | scored | 0.5over | 0 | 5 | 3 | 51 | |
| 10/4 | TEN | 0 | no TD | 0.5under | 0 | 1 | 1 | 46 | |
| 10/11 | ATL | 1 | scored | 0.5over | 0 | 6 | 5 | 43 | |
| 10/18 | CLE | 0 | no TD | 0.5under | 0 | 3 | 1 | 56 | |
| 10/25 | CIN | 1 | scored | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
Each past TE1 is set by the receiving yards lines books posted for that game, or by usage over the four games before it where none were posted. Players who left early are greyed and not counted. Own line is the middle of the main lines books posted for him that game (a push counts as not over). Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1 by today's receiving yards lines. BAL has played 7 games; the TE1 was clear in all 7.
Anytime TD: Lineup
Anytime TD: Splits
Splits
All games on file · Anytime TD at 0.5
| Split | Games | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 18 | 7 of 18 | 39% |
| 2024 | 16 | 2 of 16 | 13% |
| vs ARI | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
| Away | 18 | 3 of 18 | 17% |
| vs MIA | 4 | 1 of 4 | 25% |
| vs JAX | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100% |
| vs BAL | 3 | 1 of 3 | 33% |
| vs HOU | 2 | 0 of 2 | 0% |
| vs NYJ | 4 | 0 of 4 | 0% |
| vs TEN | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
| vs SEA | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% |
| vs IND | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
| vs DET | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% |
| vs NE | 4 | 0 of 4 | 0% |
| vs DEN | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% |
| vs KC | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% |
| 2025 | 14 | 7 of 14 | 50% |
| vs NO | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% |
| vs CAR | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
| vs CIN | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% |
| vs CLE | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
| 2026 | 6 | 1 of 6 | 17% |
| vs LAC | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
| vs LAR | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
| vs LV | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% |
Anytime TD: Game Log
Game Log
20 games, newest first · scored a touchdown or not
| Date | Opponent | Anytime TD | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | 0 | no |
| Mon, Oct 12, 2026 | @ LAR | 0 | no |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | 0 | no |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | 0 | no |
| Thu, Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | 1 | yes |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | 0 | no |
| Sat, Jan 17, 2026 | @ DEN | 1 | yes |
| Sun, Jan 11, 2026 | @ JAX | 1 | yes |
| Sun, Jan 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | 0 | no |
| Sun, Dec 21, 2025 | @ CLE | 0 | no |
| Sun, Dec 14, 2025 | @ NE | 0 | no |
| Sun, Dec 7, 2025 | vs CIN | 1 | yes |
| Sun, Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIA | 0 | no |
| Sun, Nov 2, 2025 | vs KC | 1 | yes |
| Sun, Oct 26, 2025 | @ CAR | 0 | no |
| Sun, Oct 5, 2025 | vs NE | 0 | no |
| Sun, Sep 28, 2025 | vs NO | 1 | yes |
| Thu, Sep 18, 2025 | vs MIA | 1 | yes |
| Sun, Sep 14, 2025 | @ NYJ | 0 | no |
| Sun, Sep 7, 2025 | vs BAL | 1 | yes |
Receptions
36 games loggedDalton Kincaid Receptions · 36 games logged
10 of 20 (50%) cleared 3.5 over his last 20 · over −125 Fanatics · under +110 betPARX · prices from
line3.5
3.5
quoted at 3.5: O -125 (Fanatics) · U +110 (betPARX)
9/7vs BAL9/14@ NYJ9/18vs MIA9/28vs NO10/5vs NE10/26@ CAR11/2vs KC11/9@ MIA12/7vs CIN12/14@ NE12/21@ CLE1/4vs NYJ1/11@ JAX1/17@ DEN9/13@ HOU9/17vs DET9/27vs LAC10/4vs NE10/12@ LAR10/18@ LV
latest7 Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · @ LV
3.5
10 of 20 (50%) cleared 3.5 over his last 20
targetsno range set4.5 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 54.6last 104.4last 204.5last 304.720264.820254.320245.3all4.8
Receptions: Breakdowns
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.253.603.83
SZN74th percentile for mostleague avg 2.2012 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 2.135 games (last 5)2026 season 3.8385th percentile for mostleague avg 2.136 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER14/88 TEssupports OVER
targets per game4.084.604.83
SZN69th percentile for mostleague avg 3.0312 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 2.965 games (last 5)2026 season 4.8379th percentile for mostleague avg 2.966 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER19/88 TEssupports OVER
target share14.8%16.8%17.4%
SZN72nd percentile for mostleague avg 9.9%12 games (2025)83rd percentileleague avg 9.2%5 games (last 5)2026 season 17.4%86th percentile for mostleague avg 9.2%6 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER13/88 TEssupports OVER
snap share37.4%66.8%67.7%
SZN21st percentile for mostleague avg 54.1%12 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 53.3%5 games (last 5)2026 season 67.7%79th percentile for mostleague avg 53.3%6 games (2026)supports UNDERsupports OVER19/88 TEssupports OVER
BAL · what this defence allowssee the games
receptions allowed to TEs4.94.24.1
SZN26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 83 total13th percentileleague avg 5.55 games (last 5)2026 season 4.18th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.57 games (2026) · 29 totalsupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
targets allowed to TEs6.75.65.6
SZN23rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.317 games (2025) · 113 total0th percentileleague avg 7.75 games (last 5)2026 season 5.60th percentile for most allowedleague avg 7.77 games (2026) · 39 totalsupports UNDER25/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER32/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed23.520.821.4
SZN100th percentile for most allowedleague avg 20.617 games (2025) · 399 total32nd percentileleague avg 21.55 games (last 5)2026 season 21.452nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 21.57 games (2026) · 150 totalsupports OVER1/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER16/32 NFL defencesneutral
Receptions: Head to Head
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs BAL2/3 over 3.5 · 2 seasons· 13.6% of their targets, 3 meetings
| date | tgt | rec | rec yds | tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07'25 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 8.3% |
| 01/19'25 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 9.5% |
| 09/29'24 | 7 | 5 | 47 | 25.9% |
SAME ROLE VS BAL
TE1s vs BAL
Receptions at 3.5 · Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1
TE1s went over 3.5 receptions in 2 of 7 games vs BAL · 2 of 6 went over their own line
| DATE | TEAM | PLAYER | REC | AT 3.5 | OWN LINE | TGT | REC YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | IND | 3 | under | 4.5under | 5 | 13 | 1 | |
| 9/20 | NO | 4 | over | 3.5over | 4 | 66 | 0 | |
| 9/27 | DAL | 3 | under | 3.5under | 5 | 23 | 1 | |
| 10/4 | TEN | 1 | under | 2.5under | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| 10/11 | ATL | 5 | over | 2.5over | 6 | 42 | 1 | |
| 10/18 | CLE | 1 | under | 4.5under | 3 | 9 | 0 | |
| 10/25 | CIN | 1 | under | — | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Each past TE1 is set by the receiving yards lines books posted for that game, or by usage over the four games before it where none were posted. Players who left early are greyed and not counted. Own line is the middle of the main lines books posted for him that game (a push counts as not over). Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1 by today's receiving yards lines. BAL has played 7 games; the TE1 was clear in all 7.
TEAMMATES VS BAL
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens · Receptions
Each player at their own line · every game against this club on file
Most often over: Khalil Shakir, 3 of 3 games at 3.5
| PLAYER | LINE | PRICE | OVER | PER GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 3.5 | −149 | 3 of 3 | 5.3 |
| Joshua Palmer | 1.5 | +172 | 2 of 2 | 4.0 |
| Keon Coleman | 2.5 | +139 | 2 of 3 | 4.0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3.5 | −125 | 2 of 3 | 3.3 |
| James Cook III | 1.5 | −112 | 2 of 3 | 3.0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1.5 | +160 | 1 of 3 | 1.3 |
| DJ Moore | 4.5 | +130 | 0 of 1 | 4.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2.5 | +142 | 0 of 3 | 0.3 |
Over means strictly above the line; a push is not over. Sorted by most overs, then the better rate. Only games with this stat on file are counted.
Receptions: Lineup
Receptions: Splits
Splits
All games on file · Receptions at 3.5
| Split | Games | Cleared | Rate | Tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 18 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 15.8% |
| 2024 | 16 | 7 of 16 | 44% | 18.7% |
| vs ARI | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8.6% |
| Away | 18 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 17.8% |
| vs MIA | 4 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 18.9% |
| vs JAX | 2 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 15.4% |
| vs BAL | 3 | 2 of 3 | 67% | 13.6% |
| vs HOU | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 20.7% |
| vs NYJ | 4 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 17.1% |
| vs TEN | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 18.8% |
| vs SEA | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 21.9% |
| vs IND | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 14.3% |
| vs DET | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 25.0% |
| vs NE | 4 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 16.7% |
| vs DEN | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 13.8% |
| vs KC | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 17.9% |
| 2025 | 14 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 14.4% |
| vs NO | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 9.1% |
| vs CAR | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 13.0% |
| vs CIN | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 17.8% |
| vs CLE | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 5.5% |
| 2026 | 6 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 17.8% |
| vs LAC | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 11.5% |
| vs LAR | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 10.5% |
| vs LV | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 26.7% |
Receptions: Game Log
Game Log
20 games, newest first · at 3.5
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Tgt % | Over / under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | 7 | 26.7% | over |
| Mon, Oct 12, 2026 | @ LAR | 1 | 10.5% | under |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | 1 | 6.5% | under |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | 2 | 11.5% | under |
| Thu, Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | 7 | 28.6% | over |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | 5 | 20.7% | over |
| Sat, Jan 17, 2026 | @ DEN | 6 | 15.4% | over |
| Sun, Jan 11, 2026 | @ JAX | 3 | 14.3% | under |
| Sun, Jan 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | 3 | 10.0% | under |
| Sun, Dec 21, 2025 | @ CLE | 0 | 5.6% | under |
| Sun, Dec 14, 2025 | @ NE | 3 | 15.4% | under |
| Sun, Dec 7, 2025 | vs CIN | 4 | 17.9% | over |
| Sun, Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIA | 2 | 7.5% | under |
| Sun, Nov 2, 2025 | vs KC | 6 | 24.0% | over |
| Sun, Oct 26, 2025 | @ CAR | 1 | 13.0% | under |
| Sun, Oct 5, 2025 | vs NE | 6 | 20.0% | over |
| Sun, Sep 28, 2025 | vs NO | 1 | 9.1% | under |
| Thu, Sep 18, 2025 | vs MIA | 5 | 22.2% | over |
| Sun, Sep 14, 2025 | @ NYJ | 4 | 24.0% | over |
| Sun, Sep 7, 2025 | vs BAL | 4 | 8.3% | over |
Receiving Yards
36 games loggedDalton Kincaid Receiving Yards · 36 games logged
8 of 20 (40%) cleared 45.5 over his last 20 · over −110 Bovada · under −110 Hard Rock Bet · prices from
line45.5
45.5
quoted at 45.5: O -110 (Bovada) · U -110 (Hard Rock Bet)
9/7vs BAL9/14@ NYJ9/18vs MIA9/28vs NO10/5vs NE10/26@ CAR11/2vs KC11/9@ MIA12/7vs CIN12/14@ NE12/21@ CLE1/4vs NYJ1/11@ JAX1/17@ DEN9/13@ HOU9/17vs DET9/27vs LAC10/4vs NE10/12@ LAR10/18@ LV
latest38 Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · @ LV
45.5
8 of 20 (40%) cleared 45.5 over his last 20
receptionsno range set3.5 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 53.6last 103.5last 203.5last 303.320263.820253.420243.1all3.4
Receiving Yards: Breakdowns
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.253.603.83
SZN74th percentile for mostleague avg 2.2012 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 2.135 games (last 5)2026 season 3.8385th percentile for mostleague avg 2.136 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER14/88 TEssupports OVER
targets per game4.084.604.83
SZN69th percentile for mostleague avg 3.0312 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 2.965 games (last 5)2026 season 4.8379th percentile for mostleague avg 2.966 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER19/88 TEssupports OVER
target share14.8%16.8%17.4%
SZN72nd percentile for mostleague avg 9.9%12 games (2025)83rd percentileleague avg 9.2%5 games (last 5)2026 season 17.4%86th percentile for mostleague avg 9.2%6 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER13/88 TEssupports OVER
snap share37.4%66.8%67.7%
SZN21st percentile for mostleague avg 54.1%12 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 53.3%5 games (last 5)2026 season 67.7%79th percentile for mostleague avg 53.3%6 games (2026)supports UNDERsupports OVER19/88 TEssupports OVER
BAL · what this defence allowssee the games
receiving yards allowed to TEs46.737.239.0
SZN29th percentile for most allowedleague avg 53.317 games (2025) · 794 total10th percentileleague avg 54.65 games (last 5)2026 season 39.016th percentile for most allowedleague avg 54.67 games (2026) · 273 totalsupports UNDER23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER27/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receptions allowed to TEs4.94.24.1
SZN26th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.317 games (2025) · 83 total13th percentileleague avg 5.55 games (last 5)2026 season 4.18th percentile for most allowedleague avg 5.57 games (2026) · 29 totalsupports UNDER24/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-29/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
receiving yards allowed259.0245.6235.1
SZN90th percentile for most allowedleague avg 225.017 games (2025) · 4403 total68th percentileleague avg 236.15 games (last 5)2026 season 235.147th percentile for most allowedleague avg 236.17 games (2026) · 1646 totalsupports OVER4/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-17/32 NFL defencesneutral
yards after catch allowed to TEs16.824.226.3
SZN6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 286 total45th percentileleague avg 26.85 games (last 5)2026 season 26.352nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 26.87 games (2026) · 184 totalsupports UNDER30/32 NFL defencesneutral16/32 NFL defencesneutral
Receiving Yards: Head to Head
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs BAL2/3 over 45.5 · 2 seasons· 13.6% of their targets, 3 meetings
| date | tgt | rec | rec yds | tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07'25 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 8.3% |
| 01/19'25 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 9.5% |
| 09/29'24 | 7 | 5 | 47 | 25.9% |
SAME ROLE VS BAL
TE1s vs BAL
Receiving Yards at 45.5 · Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1
TE1s went over 45.5 receiving yards in 1 of 7 games vs BAL · 2 of 6 went over their own line
| DATE | TEAM | PLAYER | REC YDS | AT 45.5 | OWN LINE | TGT | REC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | IND | 13 | under | 47.5under | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 9/20 | NO | 66 | over | 36.5over | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 9/27 | DAL | 23 | under | 27.5under | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 10/4 | TEN | 5 | under | 18.5under | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10/11 | ATL | 42 | under | 24.5over | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| 10/18 | CLE | 9 | under | 35.5under | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10/25 | CIN | 6 | under | — | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Each past TE1 is set by the receiving yards lines books posted for that game, or by usage over the four games before it where none were posted. Players who left early are greyed and not counted. Own line is the middle of the main lines books posted for him that game (a push counts as not over). Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1 by today's receiving yards lines. BAL has played 7 games; the TE1 was clear in all 7.
TEAMMATES VS BAL
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens · Receiving Yards
Each player at their own line · every game against this club on file
Most often over: Khalil Shakir, 3 of 3 games at 41.5
| PLAYER | LINE | PRICE | OVER | PER GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 41.5 | −114 | 3 of 3 | 64.3 |
| Joshua Palmer | 10.5 | −111 | 2 of 2 | 49.5 |
| Keon Coleman | 29.5 | −107 | 2 of 3 | 56.0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 45.5 | −110 | 2 of 3 | 35.3 |
| James Cook III | 9.5 | −114 | 2 of 3 | 27.3 |
| DJ Moore | 55.5 | −113 | 1 of 1 | 73.0 |
| Dawson Knox | 7.5 | −105 | 1 of 3 | 6.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 15.5 | +100 | 0 of 3 | 2.7 |
Over means strictly above the line; a push is not over. Sorted by most overs, then the better rate. Only games with this stat on file are counted.
Receiving Yards: Lineup
Receiving Yards: Splits
Splits
All games on file · Receiving Yards at 45.5
| Split | Games | Cleared | Rate | Tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 18 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 15.8% |
| 2024 | 16 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 18.7% |
| vs ARI | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8.6% |
| Away | 18 | 5 of 18 | 28% | 17.8% |
| vs MIA | 4 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 18.9% |
| vs JAX | 2 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 15.4% |
| vs BAL | 3 | 2 of 3 | 67% | 13.6% |
| vs HOU | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 20.7% |
| vs NYJ | 4 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 17.1% |
| vs TEN | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 18.8% |
| vs SEA | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 21.9% |
| vs IND | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 14.3% |
| vs DET | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 25.0% |
| vs NE | 4 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 16.7% |
| vs DEN | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 13.8% |
| vs KC | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 17.9% |
| 2025 | 14 | 6 of 14 | 43% | 14.4% |
| vs NO | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 9.1% |
| vs CAR | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 13.0% |
| vs CIN | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 17.8% |
| vs CLE | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 5.5% |
| 2026 | 6 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 17.8% |
| vs LAC | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 11.5% |
| vs LAR | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 10.5% |
| vs LV | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 26.7% |
Receiving Yards: Game Log
Game Log
20 games, newest first · at 45.5
| Date | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Tgt % | Over / under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | 38 | 26.7% | under |
| Mon, Oct 12, 2026 | @ LAR | 7 | 10.5% | under |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | 7 | 6.5% | under |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | 38 | 11.5% | under |
| Thu, Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | 95 | 28.6% | over |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | 130 | 20.7% | over |
| Sat, Jan 17, 2026 | @ DEN | 83 | 15.4% | over |
| Sun, Jan 11, 2026 | @ JAX | 28 | 14.3% | under |
| Sun, Jan 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | 48 | 10.0% | over |
| Sun, Dec 21, 2025 | @ CLE | 0 | 5.6% | under |
| Sun, Dec 14, 2025 | @ NE | 34 | 15.4% | under |
| Sun, Dec 7, 2025 | vs CIN | 41 | 17.9% | under |
| Sun, Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIA | 37 | 7.5% | under |
| Sun, Nov 2, 2025 | vs KC | 101 | 24.0% | over |
| Sun, Oct 26, 2025 | @ CAR | 23 | 13.0% | under |
| Sun, Oct 5, 2025 | vs NE | 108 | 20.0% | over |
| Sun, Sep 28, 2025 | vs NO | 28 | 9.1% | under |
| Thu, Sep 18, 2025 | vs MIA | 66 | 22.2% | over |
| Sun, Sep 14, 2025 | @ NYJ | 37 | 24.0% | under |
| Sun, Sep 7, 2025 | vs BAL | 48 | 8.3% | over |
Longest Reception
36 games loggedDalton Kincaid Longest Reception · 36 games logged
14 of 20 (70%) cleared 19.5 over his last 20 · over −120 BetMGM · under −105 Bovada · prices from
line19.5
19.5
quoted at 19.5: O -120 (BetMGM) · U -105 (Bovada)
9/7vs BAL9/14@ NYJ9/18vs MIA9/28vs NO10/5vs NE10/26@ CAR11/2vs KC11/9@ MIA12/7vs CIN12/14@ NE12/21@ CLE1/4vs NYJ1/11@ JAX1/17@ DEN9/13@ HOU9/17vs DET9/27vs LAC10/4vs NE10/12@ LAR10/18@ LV
latest14 Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · @ LV
19.5
14 of 20 (70%) cleared 19.5 over his last 20
targetsno range set4.5 avg over the 20 charted
by window, any range:last 54.6last 104.4last 204.5last 304.720264.820254.320245.3all4.8
Longest Reception: Breakdowns
Dalton Kincaid Breakdown · his own data
receptions per game3.253.603.83
SZN74th percentile for mostleague avg 2.2012 games (2025)77th percentileleague avg 2.135 games (last 5)2026 season 3.8385th percentile for mostleague avg 2.136 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER14/88 TEssupports OVER
yards per catch16.0310.4013.00
SZN98th percentile for mostleague avg 10.0811 games (2025)75th percentileleague avg 9.125 games (last 5)2026 season 13.0089th percentile for mostleague avg 9.126 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER10/87 TEssupports OVER
air yards per target10.788.119.48
SZN96th percentile for mostleague avg 5.7812 games (2025)84th percentileleague avg 5.685 games (last 5)2026 season 9.4889th percentile for mostleague avg 5.686 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER10/88 TEssupports OVER
20+ yard catches per game1.080.601.00
SZN99th percentile for mostleague avg 0.2912 games (2025)90th percentileleague avg 0.225 games (last 5)2026 season 1.0098th percentile for mostleague avg 0.226 games (2026)supports OVERsupports OVER2/88 TEssupports OVER
BAL · what this defence allowssee the games
20+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.50.00.3
SZN39th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.617 games (2025) · 9 total5th percentileleague avg 0.55 games (last 5)2026 season 0.324th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.57 games (2026) · 2 totalsupports UNDERT-18/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-23/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
30+ yard receptions allowed to TEs0.10.00.0
SZN21st percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.217 games (2025) · 1 total23rd percentileleague avg 0.25 games (last 5)2026 season 0.023rd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.27 games (2026) · 0 totalsupports UNDERT-20/32 NFL defencessupports UNDERT-18/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
40+ yard receptions allowed (all positions)0.50.60.4
SZN77th percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.417 games (2025) · 9 total65th percentileleague avg 0.65 games (last 5)2026 season 0.432nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 0.67 games (2026) · 3 totalsupports OVERT-6/32 NFL defencessupports OVERT-19/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
yards after catch allowed to TEs16.824.226.3
SZN6th percentile for most allowedleague avg 25.817 games (2025) · 286 total45th percentileleague avg 26.85 games (last 5)2026 season 26.352nd percentile for most allowedleague avg 26.87 games (2026) · 184 totalsupports UNDER30/32 NFL defencesneutral16/32 NFL defencesneutral
air yards faced294.0231.6219.9
SZN97th percentile for most facedleague avg 239.817 games (2025) · 4998 total32nd percentileleague avg 251.95 games (last 5)2026 season 219.923rd percentile for most facedleague avg 251.97 games (2026) · 1539 totalsupports OVER2/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER25/32 NFL defencessupports UNDER
Longest Reception: Head to Head
Head to HeadDalton Kincaid vs BAL2/3 over 19.5 · 2 seasons· 13.6% of their targets, 3 meetings
| date | tgt | rec | rec yds | lng rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07'25 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 22 |
| 01/19'25 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 |
| 09/29'24 | 7 | 5 | 47 | 25 |
SAME ROLE VS BAL
TE1s vs BAL
Longest Reception at 19.5 · Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1
TE1s went over 19.5 longest reception in 1 of 7 games vs BAL · 2 of 5 went over their own line
| DATE | TEAM | PLAYER | LONG | AT 19.5 | OWN LINE | TGT | REC | REC YDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13 | IND | 9 | under | — | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| 9/20 | NO | 25 | over | 16.5over | 4 | 4 | 66 | |
| 9/27 | DAL | 19 | under | 13.5over | 5 | 3 | 23 | |
| 10/4 | TEN | 5 | under | 11.5under | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| 10/11 | ATL | 13 | under | 14.5under | 6 | 5 | 42 | |
| 10/18 | CLE | 9 | under | 15.5under | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
| 10/25 | CIN | 6 | under | — | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Each past TE1 is set by the receiving yards lines books posted for that game, or by usage over the four games before it where none were posted. Players who left early are greyed and not counted. Own line is the middle of the main lines books posted for him that game (a push counts as not over). Dalton Kincaid is BUF's TE1 by today's receiving yards lines. BAL has played 7 games; the TE1 was clear in all 7.
TEAMMATES VS BAL
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens · Longest Reception
Each player at their own line · every game against this club on file
Most often over: Khalil Shakir, 3 of 3 games at 19.5
| PLAYER | LINE | PRICE | OVER | PER GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 19.5 | −105 | 3 of 3 | 37.3 |
| Joshua Palmer | 9.5 | −110 | 2 of 2 | 24.5 |
| James Cook III | 7.5 | −110 | 2 of 3 | 22.3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 19.5 | −120 | 2 of 3 | 19.3 |
| Keon Coleman | 16.5 | −106 | 2 of 3 | 18.0 |
| DJ Moore | 23.5 | −110 | 1 of 1 | 42.0 |
| Dawson Knox | 7.5 | −106 | 1 of 3 | 4.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 9.5 | −105 | 0 of 1 | 8.0 |
Over means strictly above the line; a push is not over. Sorted by most overs, then the better rate. Only games with this stat on file are counted.
Longest Reception: Lineup
Longest Reception: Splits
Splits
All games on file · Longest Reception at 19.5
| Split | Games | Cleared | Rate | Tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 18 | 12 of 18 | 67% | 15.8% |
| 2024 | 16 | 6 of 16 | 38% | 18.7% |
| vs ARI | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8.6% |
| Away | 18 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 17.8% |
| vs MIA | 4 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 18.9% |
| vs JAX | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 15.4% |
| vs BAL | 3 | 2 of 3 | 67% | 13.6% |
| vs HOU | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 20.7% |
| vs NYJ | 4 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 17.1% |
| vs TEN | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 18.8% |
| vs SEA | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 21.9% |
| vs IND | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 14.3% |
| vs DET | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 25.0% |
| vs NE | 4 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 16.7% |
| vs DEN | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 13.8% |
| vs KC | 2 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 17.9% |
| 2025 | 14 | 11 of 14 | 79% | 14.4% |
| vs NO | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 9.1% |
| vs CAR | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 13.0% |
| vs CIN | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 17.8% |
| vs CLE | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 5.5% |
| 2026 | 6 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 17.8% |
| vs LAC | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 11.5% |
| vs LAR | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 10.5% |
| vs LV | 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 26.7% |
Longest Reception: Game Log
Game Log
20 games, newest first · at 19.5
| Date | Opponent | Longest Reception | Tgt % | Over / under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | 14 | 26.7% | under |
| Mon, Oct 12, 2026 | @ LAR | 7 | 10.5% | under |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | 7 | 6.5% | under |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | 24 | 11.5% | over |
| Thu, Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | 25 | 28.6% | over |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | 40 | 20.7% | over |
| Sat, Jan 17, 2026 | @ DEN | 25 | 15.4% | over |
| Sun, Jan 11, 2026 | @ JAX | 15 | 14.3% | under |
| Sun, Jan 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | 26 | 10.0% | over |
| Sun, Dec 21, 2025 | @ CLE | 0 | 5.6% | under |
| Sun, Dec 14, 2025 | @ NE | 24 | 15.4% | over |
| Sun, Dec 7, 2025 | vs CIN | 20 | 17.9% | over |
| Sun, Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIA | 20 | 7.5% | over |
| Sun, Nov 2, 2025 | vs KC | 47 | 24.0% | over |
| Sun, Oct 26, 2025 | @ CAR | 23 | 13.0% | over |
| Sun, Oct 5, 2025 | vs NE | 23 | 20.0% | over |
| Sun, Sep 28, 2025 | vs NO | 28 | 9.1% | over |
| Thu, Sep 18, 2025 | vs MIA | 20 | 22.2% | over |
| Sun, Sep 14, 2025 | @ NYJ | 18 | 24.0% | under |
| Sun, Sep 7, 2025 | vs BAL | 22 | 8.3% | over |
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