← Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians

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Dylan Cease

TORToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians6:41 PMProgressive Field

Runs

The MatchupDylan Cease: Runs by split

	G	PA	R	R/G	OBP	over 1.5
on the road ●	11	—	—	—	—	0% (0/11)
at home	14	—	—	—	—	0% (0/14)
season	25	—	—	—	—	0% (0/25)

● tonight's split

The BatDylan Cease: contact quality by splitexpected outcomes and batted-ball shape, per split

	PA	R/PA	BBE	xBA	LD%	SS%	EV
vs RHP	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
vs LHP	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
on the road ●	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
at home	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
season	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

1.5line

OVER-139Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost-107no market fair50% boost+108no market fair

UNDER+105Pinnaclemarket fair unavailable (too few two-sided quotes)

30% boost+136no market fair50% boost+157no market fair

Strikeouts

25 games logged

line6.5

The Opposing LineupCleveland Guardians vs Dylan Ceasea strikeout line is a bet on the lineup as much as the arm · season to date

strikeout rate21.3%21.0%

24th percentile for strikeouts (23 of 30)league avg 22.1%5207 PAvs RHP · 28th pct · 22 of 30season 21.3% (24th)3639 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

walk rate9.6%9.0%

83rd percentile for walks drawn (6 of 30)league avg 8.9%5207 PAvs RHP · 55th pct · 14 of 30season 9.6% (83rd)3639 PAsupports UNDERneutral

team AVG.237.240

28th percentile for batting average (22 of 30)league avg .2445207 PAvs RHP · 34th pct · 20 of 30season .237 (28th)3639 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER

Cleveland Guardians slash.237 / .315 / .373.688 OPS · 5207 PA

Cease's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	345	37.4%	11.9%	13.40	3.15	.161
vs RHB	256	34.4%	9.4%	12.44	3.67	.196
home	330	36.4%	10.6%	13.44	3.43	.197
away ●	271	35.8%	11.1%	12.47	3.23	.150

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that fans 3 points above league average is worth more to a strikeout line than any recent-form streak.

Against This ClubDylan Cease vs Cleveland Guardians14 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 6.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 6.5
Apr 2 '25	6.1	19	7	4	1	1	0	over
Jul 20 '24	7.0	21	10	1	0	1	0	over
Jul 27 '23	5.2	17	5	9	4	2	0	under
May 23 '23	6.0	18	3	5	2	2	1	under
May 18 '23	6.1	19	3	5	3	1	1	under
Sep 20 '22	6.0	18	3	4	1	3	0	under
Jul 24 '22	6.0	18	4	7	0	1	0	under
Jul 12 '22	5.2	17	9	5	0	3	0	over
Apr 21 '22	5.1	16	3	8	4	2	1	under
Sep 24 '21	5.1	16	9	4	0	0	0	over
Jun 1 '21	3.1	10	2	8	6	1	1	under
Aug 7 '20	5.0	15	4	2	0	5	0	under
Jul 28 '20	2.1	7	1	7	4	0	2	under
Sep 3 '19	6.2	20	11	4	4	2	1	over

14 career games against them · they have hit .248/.308/.391 off him · 322 plate appearances · 5 of 14 went over 6.5

Dylan Cease Breakdown · his own data

K%36.1%—

no split for this stat

99th percentile for strikeoutsleague avg 22.7%601 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only

whiff%34.2%—

no split for this stat

96th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%601 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only

K/912.9—

no split for this stat

league avg 8.5+4.4 vs league26 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

first-pitch strike%63.2%—

no split for this stat

64th percentile for first-pitch strikesleague avg 61.9%601 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only

The MatchupDylan Cease: Strikeouts by split

	G	IP	K	K/G	H	over 6.5
on the road ●	11	70.0	97	8.82	36	82% (9/11)
at home	14	80.1	120	8.57	57	93% (13/14)
season	25	150.1	217	8.68	93	88% (22/25)

● tonight's split

6.5line

OVER+111NoVigfair +101 · +4.9% vs fair

30% boost+144+21.4% vs market · +115% vs season50% boost+167+32.5% vs market · +134.5% vs season

UNDER-106DraftKingsfair -104 · -0.9% vs fair

30% boost+123+13.5% vs market · -73.3% vs season50% boost+142+23.2% vs market · -71% vs season

Outs

25 games logged

line17.5

The Opposing LineupCleveland Guardians vs Dylan Ceasean outs line is a bet on how long this lineup lets him work · season to date

team OBP.315.313

41st percentile for on-base (18 of 30)league avg .3195207 PAvs RHP · 31st pct · 21 of 30season .315 (41st)3639 PAneutralsupports OVER

strikeout rate21.3%21.0%

24th percentile for strikeouts (23 of 30)league avg 22.1%5207 PAvs RHP · 28th pct · 22 of 30season 21.3% (24th)3639 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

runs per game4.08—

no split for this stat

10th percentile for runs scored (27 of 30)league avg 4.48138 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports OVERseason only

Cleveland Guardians slash.237 / .315 / .373.688 OPS · 5207 PA

Cease's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	345	37.4%	11.9%	13.40	3.15	.161
vs RHB	256	34.4%	9.4%	12.44	3.67	.196
home	330	36.4%	10.6%	13.44	3.43	.197
away ●	271	35.8%	11.1%	12.47	3.23	.150

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. Walks and crooked numbers end outings early; quick outs extend them.

Against This ClubDylan Cease vs Cleveland Guardians14 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 17.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 17.5
Apr 2 '25	6.1	19	7	4	1	1	0	over
Jul 20 '24	7.0	21	10	1	0	1	0	over
Jul 27 '23	5.2	17	5	9	4	2	0	under
May 23 '23	6.0	18	3	5	2	2	1	over
May 18 '23	6.1	19	3	5	3	1	1	over
Sep 20 '22	6.0	18	3	4	1	3	0	over
Jul 24 '22	6.0	18	4	7	0	1	0	over
Jul 12 '22	5.2	17	9	5	0	3	0	under
Apr 21 '22	5.1	16	3	8	4	2	1	under
Sep 24 '21	5.1	16	9	4	0	0	0	under
Jun 1 '21	3.1	10	2	8	6	1	1	under
Aug 7 '20	5.0	15	4	2	0	5	0	under
Jul 28 '20	2.1	7	1	7	4	0	2	under
Sep 3 '19	6.2	20	11	4	4	2	1	over

14 career games against them · they have hit .248/.308/.391 off him · 322 plate appearances · 7 of 14 went over 17.5

Dylan Cease Breakdown · his own data

IP per start5.8—

no comparison availableno split for this stat

26 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.05—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.31-0.26 vs league26 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

xERA2.66—

no split for this stat

5th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.17601 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports OVERseason only

The MatchupDylan Cease: Outs by split

	G	outs	IP	outs/G	ER	over 17.5
on the road ●	11	210	70.0	19.09	13	64% (7/11)
at home	14	241	80.1	17.21	26	50% (7/14)
season	25	451	150.1	18.04	39	56% (14/25)

● tonight's split

17.5line

OVER-125NoVigfair -129 · +1.5% vs fair

30% boost+104+15.1% vs market · +14.2% vs season50% boost+120+24.1% vs market · +23.2% vs season

UNDER+127DraftKingsfair +127 · -0.1% vs fair

30% boost+165+16.6% vs market · +16.6% vs season50% boost+191+27.8% vs market · +27.8% vs season

Hits Allowed

25 games logged

line4.5

The Opposing LineupCleveland Guardians vs Dylan Ceasea hits-allowed line is a bet on how much contact this lineup makes · season to date

team AVG.237.240

28th percentile for batting average (22 of 30)league avg .2445207 PAvs RHP · 34th pct · 20 of 30season .237 (28th)3639 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

team OBP.315.313

41st percentile for on-base (18 of 30)league avg .3195207 PAvs RHP · 31st pct · 21 of 30season .315 (41st)3639 PAneutralsupports UNDER

strikeout rate21.3%21.0%

24th percentile for strikeouts (23 of 30)league avg 22.1%5207 PAvs RHP · 28th pct · 22 of 30season 21.3% (24th)3639 PAsupports OVERsupports OVER

team SLG.373.381

3rd percentile for slugging (29 of 30)league avg .4005207 PAvs RHP · 10th pct · 27 of 30season .373 (3rd)3639 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

Cleveland Guardians slash.237 / .315 / .373.688 OPS · 5207 PA

Cease's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	345	37.4%	11.9%	13.40	3.15	.161
vs RHB	256	34.4%	9.4%	12.44	3.67	.196
home	330	36.4%	10.6%	13.44	3.43	.197
away ●	271	35.8%	11.1%	12.47	3.23	.150

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. A lineup that rarely fans puts more balls in play, and balls in play become hits.

Against This ClubDylan Cease vs Cleveland Guardians14 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 4.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 4.5
Apr 2 '25	6.1	19	7	4	1	1	0	under
Jul 20 '24	7.0	21	10	1	0	1	0	under
Jul 27 '23	5.2	17	5	9	4	2	0	over
May 23 '23	6.0	18	3	5	2	2	1	over
May 18 '23	6.1	19	3	5	3	1	1	over
Sep 20 '22	6.0	18	3	4	1	3	0	under
Jul 24 '22	6.0	18	4	7	0	1	0	over
Jul 12 '22	5.2	17	9	5	0	3	0	over
Apr 21 '22	5.1	16	3	8	4	2	1	over
Sep 24 '21	5.1	16	9	4	0	0	0	under
Jun 1 '21	3.1	10	2	8	6	1	1	over
Aug 7 '20	5.0	15	4	2	0	5	0	under
Jul 28 '20	2.1	7	1	7	4	0	2	over
Sep 3 '19	6.2	20	11	4	4	2	1	under

14 career games against them · they have hit .248/.308/.391 off him · 322 plate appearances · 8 of 14 went over 4.5

Dylan Cease Breakdown · his own data

xBA against.183—

no split for this stat

4th percentileleague avg .239601 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

AVG against.176—

no split for this stat

league avg .244-0.068 vs league26 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.05—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.31-0.26 vs league26 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

whiff%34.2%—

no split for this stat

96th percentile for whiffs generatedleague avg 25.3%601 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

The MatchupDylan Cease: Hits Allowed by split

	G	IP	H	H/G	K	over 4.5
on the road ●	11	70.0	36	3.27	97	27% (3/11)
at home	14	80.1	57	4.07	120	29% (4/14)
season	25	150.1	93	3.72	217	28% (7/25)

● tonight's split

4.5line

OVER+125BetMGMfair +123 · +0.7% vs fair

30% boost+162+17.3% vs market · -26.5% vs season50% boost+188+28.5% vs market · -19.5% vs season

UNDER-121ProphetXfair -122 · +0.5% vs fair

30% boost+107+14.1% vs market · +49.4% vs season50% boost+124+23.2% vs market · +61.3% vs season

Earned Runs

25 games logged

line1.5

The Opposing LineupCleveland Guardians vs Dylan Ceasean ER line is a bet on the damage this lineup does · season to date

runs per game4.08—

no split for this stat

10th percentile for runs scored (27 of 30)league avg 4.48138 gamesno vs-hand split: team splits carry no runs, and their game count is not a per-game denominatorsupports UNDERseason only

team OBP.315.313

41st percentile for on-base (18 of 30)league avg .3195207 PAvs RHP · 31st pct · 21 of 30season .315 (41st)3639 PAneutralsupports UNDER

HR rate2.5%2.7%

3rd percentile for home runs (29 of 30)league avg 3.0%5207 PAvs RHP · 17th pct · 25 of 30season 2.5% (3rd)3639 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

team SLG.373.381

3rd percentile for slugging (29 of 30)league avg .4005207 PAvs RHP · 10th pct · 27 of 30season .373 (3rd)3639 PAsupports UNDERsupports UNDER

Cleveland Guardians slash.237 / .315 / .373.688 OPS · 5207 PA

Cease's own splits

	BF	K%	BB%	K/9	K:BB	AVG
vs LHB	345	37.4%	11.9%	13.40	3.15	.161
vs RHB	256	34.4%	9.4%	12.44	3.67	.196
home	330	36.4%	10.6%	13.44	3.43	.197
away ●	271	35.8%	11.1%	12.47	3.23	.150

Season lines from MLB's own splits, with the sample attached. How a lineup scores - and how often it leaves the yard - is most of an earned-run line.

Against This ClubDylan Cease vs Cleveland Guardians14 career meetings, most recent first · graded against tonight's 1.5

when	IP	outs	K	H	ER	BB	HR	vs 1.5
Apr 2 '25	6.1	19	7	4	1	1	0	under
Jul 20 '24	7.0	21	10	1	0	1	0	under
Jul 27 '23	5.2	17	5	9	4	2	0	over
May 23 '23	6.0	18	3	5	2	2	1	over
May 18 '23	6.1	19	3	5	3	1	1	over
Sep 20 '22	6.0	18	3	4	1	3	0	under
Jul 24 '22	6.0	18	4	7	0	1	0	under
Jul 12 '22	5.2	17	9	5	0	3	0	under
Apr 21 '22	5.1	16	3	8	4	2	1	over
Sep 24 '21	5.1	16	9	4	0	0	0	under
Jun 1 '21	3.1	10	2	8	6	1	1	over
Aug 7 '20	5.0	15	4	2	0	5	0	under
Jul 28 '20	2.1	7	1	7	4	0	2	over
Sep 3 '19	6.2	20	11	4	4	2	1	over

14 career games against them · they have hit .248/.308/.391 off him · 322 plate appearances · 7 of 14 went over 1.5

Dylan Cease Breakdown · his own data

xERA2.66—

no split for this stat

5th percentile for expected ERAleague avg 4.17601 batters facedno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

ERA2.32—

no split for this stat

8th percentileleague avg 4.1626 startsno handedness split for this statsupports UNDERseason only

HR/90.59—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.16-0.57 vs league26 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

WHIP1.05—

no split for this stat

league avg 1.31-0.26 vs league26 startsno handedness split for this statneutralseason only

The MatchupDylan Cease: Earned Runs by split

	G	IP	ER	ERA	H	over 1.5
on the road ●	11	70.0	13	1.67	36	36% (4/11)
at home	14	80.1	26	2.91	57	50% (7/14)
season	25	150.1	39	2.33	93	44% (11/25)

● tonight's split

1.5line

OVER-132ProphetXfair -130 · -0.5% vs fair

30% boost-102+12.3% vs market · -12.7% vs season50% boost+114+20.9% vs market · -6% vs season

UNDER+128DraftKingsfair +126 · +0.8% vs fair

30% boost+166+17.7% vs market · +49.2% vs season50% boost+192+29.1% vs market · +63.5% vs season

Opposing hitters on the prop boardToronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardianssorted by the focused market, not batting order

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