Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · NFL

ATL @ TB

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 1:00 PM ET

1 = allows the most

2026 regular season · Stats through Oct 29, 2026 · 6–8 games per defense

TB defense allowsWhat Atlanta sees

7 games

TB leans toward RB targets: 11th-most allowed (19.6%). Offenses pass 3.2 pp more often than expected against TB.

TB allowances, 2026. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
T6	Receptions / game · RB	5.4	+20.4%
Supports OVER Bijan Robinsono3.5 Receptions−139 CourtsideL10 5/10 Khalil Herberto0.5 Receptions+110 bet365L10 4/10
T6	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.71	+36.6%
Supports OVER Austin Hoopero0.5 Anytime TD+1100 bet365L10 1/10 Charlie Woernero0.5 Anytime TD+1500 Bally BetL10 0/10 Kyle Pitts Sr.o0.5 Anytime TD+310 BetMGML10 4/10 Nick Museo0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML7 1/7
8	QB completions / game	22.9	+6.4%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o19.5 Completions−103 Bally BetL10 4/10
T10	QB pass attempts / game	35.1	+4.9%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o31.5 Passing Attempts−119 DraftKingsL10 6/10
10	Rec yards / game · RB	37.0	+15.5%
Supports OVER Bijan Robinsono27.5 Rec Yards−122 Bally BetL10 5/10 Khalil Herberto0.5 Rec Yards+135 bet365L10 4/10
10	Rec yards / game · TE	62.0	+13.7%
Supports OVER Kyle Pitts Sr.o35.5 Rec Yards−109 CourtsideL10 5/10 Austin Hoopero6.5 Rec Yards−110 bet365L10 6/10
11	Target share · RB	19.6%	+1.6 pp
Supports OVER Bijan Robinsono3.5 Receptions−139 CourtsideL10 5/10 Khalil Herberto0.5 Receptions+110 bet365L10 4/10 Bijan Robinsono27.5 Rec Yards−122 Bally BetL10 5/10 Khalil Herberto0.5 Rec Yards+135 bet365L10 4/10
T11	Dropbacks / game	38.4	+2.3%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o31.5 Passing Attempts−119 DraftKingsL10 6/10
T12	RZ targets / game · WR	2.57	+1.9%
Supports OVER Chris Blairo0.5 Anytime TD+3000 BetMGML10 0/10 Drake Londono0.5 Anytime TD+148 Bally BetL10 2/10 Jahan Dotsono0.5 Anytime TD+450 Bally BetL10 2/10 Olamide Zaccheauso0.5 Anytime TD+1150 Bally BetL10 1/10 Zachariah Brancho0.5 Anytime TD+1400 Bally BetL7 0/7
T12	RZ targets / game · TE	1.29	−1.9%
Supports OVER Austin Hoopero0.5 Anytime TD+1100 bet365L10 1/10 Charlie Woernero0.5 Anytime TD+1500 Bally BetL10 0/10 Kyle Pitts Sr.o0.5 Anytime TD+310 BetMGML10 4/10 Nick Museo0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML7 1/7
T13	Receptions / game · TE	5.7	+3.6%
Supports OVER Kyle Pitts Sr.o3.5 Receptions−105 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Austin Hoopero0.5 Receptions−190 bet365L10 7/10
14	Target share · TE	24.3%	+0.2 pp
No lean at 14 of 32 Kyle Pitts Sr.3.5 Receptionso −105 · u −106L10 5/10 over Austin Hooper0.5 Receptionso −190 · u +150L10 7/10 over Kyle Pitts Sr.35.5 Rec Yardso −109 · u −114L10 5/10 over Austin Hooper6.5 Rec Yardso −110 · u −120L10 6/10 over
T14	QB completion rate	65.0%	+0.8 pp
No lean at 14 (tied) of 32 Michael Penix Jr.19.5 Completionso −103 · u +101L10 4/10 over
14	Receptions / game · WR	11.7	+2.3%
No lean at 14 of 32 Drake London6.5 Receptionso +130 · u −138L10 3/10 over Jahan Dotson1.5 Receptionso −170 · u +165L10 5/10 over Olamide Zaccheaus1.5 Receptionso +160 · u −210L10 2/10 over Zachariah Branch1.5 Receptionso +150 · u −190L7 4/7 over
T16	RZ targets / game · RB	0.57	−24.2%
No lean at 16 (tied) of 32 Bijan Robinson0.5 Anytime TDo −167L10 5/10 over Khalil Herbert0.5 Anytime TDo +775L10 0/10 over
19	Target share · WR	56.2%	−1.7 pp
No lean at 19 of 32 Drake London6.5 Receptionso +130 · u −138L10 3/10 over Jahan Dotson1.5 Receptionso −170 · u +165L10 5/10 over Olamide Zaccheaus1.5 Receptionso +160 · u −210L10 2/10 over Zachariah Branch1.5 Receptionso +150 · u −190L7 4/7 over Drake London79.5 Rec Yardso −103 · u −114L10 3/10 over Jahan Dotson24.5 Rec Yardso −115 · u −109L10 4/10 over Olamide Zaccheaus9.5 Rec Yardso −115 · u −115L10 1/10 over Zachariah Branch8.5 Rec Yardso −115 · u −115L7 5/7 over
19	QB pass yards / game	233.7	−1.0%
No lean at 19 of 32 Michael Penix Jr.228.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 4/10 over
T20	Touchdowns / game · WR	0.71	−19.1%
21	QB pass yards / attempt	6.65	−5.9%
Supports UNDER Michael Penix Jr.u228.5 Passing Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 6/10
22	Rush explosive rate	8.8%	−0.4 pp
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu18.5 Longest Rush−114 betPARXL10 3/10 Khalil Herbertu5.5 Longest Rush−120 bet365L10 5/10 Michael Penix Jr.u2.5 Longest Rush−105 bet365L10 5/10
23	Rec yards / game · WR	134.7	−9.8%
Supports UNDER Drake Londonu79.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 7/10 Jahan Dotsonu24.5 Rec Yards−109 BetOnline.agL10 6/10 Olamide Zaccheausu9.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L10 9/10 Zachariah Branchu8.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L7 2/7
25	Dropback success rate	43.5%	−2.0 pp
Supports UNDER Michael Penix Jr.u228.5 Passing Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 6/10
T25	Red-zone trips / game	2.71	−17.9%
26	Rush success rate	35.3%	−5.0 pp
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 6/10 Michael Penix Jr.u1.5 Rush Yards−102 FanDuelL10 5/10
27	RB yards / carry	3.60	−11.9%
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 6/10
27	Dropback explosive rate	5.9%	−2.0 pp
Supports UNDER Michael Penix Jr.u36.5 Longest Completion−117 DraftKingsL10 3/10
28	Offensive plays faced / game	57.9	−6.1%
Supports UNDER Michael Penix Jr.u31.5 Passing Attempts−107 DraftKingsL10 4/10
30	RB carries / game	18.0	−18.8%
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu19.5 Rushing Attempts−117 DraftKingsL10 6/10 Khalil Herbertu3.5 Rushing Attempts−155 bet365L10 7/10
30	Dropback EPA / play	−0.099	−0.16
Supports UNDER Michael Penix Jr.u228.5 Passing Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 6/10
31	RB rush yards / game	64.9	−28.8%
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 6/10
31	RB rushing EPA / play	−0.178	−0.09
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 6/10
T31	Touchdowns / game · RB	0.43	−52.6%

ATL defense allowsWhat Tampa Bay sees

7 games

ATL funnels toward RB targets: 3rd-most allowed (22.1%). Offenses pass 3.6 pp more often than expected against ATL.

ATL allowances, 2026. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
2	QB pass attempts / game	40.9	+22.0%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo31.5 Passing Attempts−103 BetOnline.agL10 4/10
2	QB completions / game	26.6	+23.6%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo19.5 Completions−104 Bally BetL10 3/10
2	Receptions / game · RB	6.1	+36.1%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo2.5 Receptions−156 BetOnline.agL10 3/10 Kenny Gainwello1.5 Receptions−130 theScore BetL10 7/10
T2	Dropbacks / game	44.0	+17.1%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo31.5 Passing Attempts−103 BetOnline.agL10 4/10
3	Target share · RB	22.1%	+4.1 pp
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo2.5 Receptions−156 BetOnline.agL10 3/10 Kenny Gainwello1.5 Receptions−130 theScore BetL10 7/10 Bucky Irvingo18.5 Rec Yards−112 Bally BetL10 1/10 Kenny Gainwello11.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL10 5/10
3	RZ targets / game · RB	1.29	+71.5%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo0.5 Anytime TD−105 CourtsideL10 3/10 Kenny Gainwello0.5 Anytime TD+370 Bally BetL10 2/10 Sean Tuckero0.5 Anytime TD+500 Bally BetL10 5/10
4	QB pass yards / game	271.4	+15.0%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo213.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 4/10
4	Touchdowns / game · RB	1.43	+57.6%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo0.5 Anytime TD−105 CourtsideL10 3/10 Kenny Gainwello0.5 Anytime TD+370 Bally BetL10 2/10 Sean Tuckero0.5 Anytime TD+500 Bally BetL10 5/10
5	Receptions / game · WR	13.7	+19.8%
Supports OVER Chris Godwin Jr.o4.5 Receptions+110 Bally BetL10 3/10 Ted Hurst IIIo2.5 Receptions+102 FanDuelL7 2/7 Tez Johnsono2.5 Receptions+122 FanDuelL10 0/10
5	RZ targets / game · TE	2.29	+74.1%
Supports OVER Bauer Sharpo0.5 Anytime TD+2500 BetMGML7 0/7 Cade Ottono0.5 Anytime TD+310 BovadaL10 1/10 Ko Kiefto0.5 Anytime TD+2500 Bovada Payne Durhamo0.5 Anytime TD+1850 BetMGML10 0/10
6	Receptions / game · TE	6.7	+21.8%
Supports OVER Cade Ottono3.5 Receptions−105 bet365L10 4/10
6	Offensive plays faced / game	65.7	+6.6%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo31.5 Passing Attempts−103 BetOnline.agL10 4/10
7	RZ targets / game · WR	3.14	+24.6%
Supports OVER Chris Godwin Jr.o0.5 Anytime TD+240 BetMGML10 1/10 David Sills Vo0.5 Anytime TD+1750 BetMGML10 2/10 Kameron Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+7500 Hard Rock BetL10 0/10 Ted Hurst IIIo0.5 Anytime TD+310 Bally BetL7 1/7 Tez Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+340 FliffL10 1/10
8	Rec yards / game · WR	171.6	+14.8%
Supports OVER Chris Godwin Jr.o40.5 Rec Yards−113 CourtsideL10 2/10 Ted Hurst IIIo31.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL7 3/7 Tez Johnsono29.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL10 3/10
T8	Red-zone trips / game	3.86	+16.9%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo0.5 Anytime TD+650 BetMGML10 1/10 Bauer Sharpo0.5 Anytime TD+2500 BetMGML7 0/7 Bucky Irvingo0.5 Anytime TD−105 CourtsideL10 3/10 Cade Ottono0.5 Anytime TD+310 BovadaL10 1/10 Chris Godwin Jr.o0.5 Anytime TD+240 BetMGML10 1/10 David Sills Vo0.5 Anytime TD+1750 BetMGML10 2/10 Kameron Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+7500 Hard Rock BetL10 0/10 Kenny Gainwello0.5 Anytime TD+370 Bally BetL10 2/10 Ko Kiefto0.5 Anytime TD+2500 Bovada Payne Durhamo0.5 Anytime TD+1850 BetMGML10 0/10 Sean Tuckero0.5 Anytime TD+500 Bally BetL10 5/10 Ted Hurst IIIo0.5 Anytime TD+310 Bally BetL7 1/7 Tez Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+340 FliffL10 1/10
9	Rec yards / game · RB	37.1	+15.9%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo18.5 Rec Yards−112 Bally BetL10 1/10 Kenny Gainwello11.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL10 5/10
9	Rec yards / game · TE	62.7	+15.0%
Supports OVER Cade Ottono33.5 Rec Yards−110 CourtsideL10 4/10
T12	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.57	+9.7%
Supports OVER Bauer Sharpo0.5 Anytime TD+2500 BetMGML7 0/7 Cade Ottono0.5 Anytime TD+310 BovadaL10 1/10 Ko Kiefto0.5 Anytime TD+2500 Bovada Payne Durhamo0.5 Anytime TD+1850 BetMGML10 0/10
14	Rush success rate	42.1%	+1.8 pp
No lean at 14 of 32 Bucky Irving69.5 Rush Yardso −105 · u −111L10 5/10 over Baker Mayfield16.5 Rush Yardso −114 · u −108L10 6/10 over Kenny Gainwell14.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −111L10 6/10 over
T14	QB completion rate	65.0%	+0.8 pp
No lean at 14 (tied) of 32 Baker Mayfield19.5 Completionso −104 · u +101L10 3/10 over
17	RB yards / carry	4.10	+0.3%
No lean at 17 of 32 Bucky Irving69.5 Rush Yardso −105 · u −111L10 5/10 over Kenny Gainwell14.5 Rush Yardso −110 · u −111L10 6/10 over
17	Rush explosive rate	9.2%	−0.1 pp
No lean at 17 of 32 Bucky Irving14.5 Longest Rusho +100 · u −115L10 3/10 over Baker Mayfield10.5 Longest Rusho −102 · u −125L10 6/10 over Kenny Gainwell6.5 Longest Rusho −130 · u +101L10 6/10 over Sean Tucker5.5 Longest Rusho −105 · u −125L10 6/10 over
18	Dropback success rate	44.8%	−0.7 pp
No lean at 18 of 32 Baker Mayfield213.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 4/10 over
21	Target share · TE	22.9%	−1.1 pp
Supports UNDER Cade Ottonu3.5 Receptions−110 BetMGML10 6/10 Cade Ottonu33.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 6/10
21	RB rush yards / game	82.0	−10.0%
Supports UNDER Bucky Irvingu69.5 Rush Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Kenny Gainwellu14.5 Rush Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 4/10
21	Dropback EPA / play	+0.015	−0.05
Supports UNDER Baker Mayfieldu213.5 Passing Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 6/10
22	RB rushing EPA / play	−0.117	−0.03
Supports UNDER Bucky Irvingu69.5 Rush Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 5/10 Kenny Gainwellu14.5 Rush Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 4/10
22	Dropback explosive rate	7.5%	−0.5 pp
Supports UNDER Baker Mayfieldu33.5 Longest Completion−108 DraftKingsL10 5/10
22	QB pass yards / attempt	6.64	−6.0%
Supports UNDER Baker Mayfieldu213.5 Passing Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 6/10
T23	Touchdowns / game · WR	0.57	−35.1%
25	Target share · WR	55.0%	−2.9 pp
Supports UNDER Chris Godwin Jr.u4.5 Receptions−120 theScore BetL10 7/10 Ted Hurst IIIu2.5 Receptions−118 betPARXL7 5/7 Tez Johnsonu2.5 Receptions−139 DraftKingsL10 10/10 Chris Godwin Jr.u40.5 Rec Yards−111 DraftKingsL10 8/10 Ted Hurst IIIu31.5 Rec Yards−108 BetOnline.agL7 4/7 Tez Johnsonu29.5 Rec Yards−110 theScore BetL10 7/10
27	RB carries / game	20.0	−9.8%
Supports UNDER Bucky Irvingu16.5 Rushing Attempts−103 DraftKingsL10 4/10 Kenny Gainwellu3.5 Rushing Attempts+110 bet365L10 4/10

2025 regular season · Stats through Jan 4, 2026 · 17 games per defense

TB defense allowsWhat Atlanta sees

17 games

TB funnels toward QB passing yards: 6th-most allowed (254.8). Offenses pass 1.3 pp more often than expected against TB.

TB allowances, 2025. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
1	Rec yards / game · RB	50.6	+59.9%
Supports OVER Bijan Robinsono27.5 Rec Yards−122 Bally BetL10 5/10 Khalil Herberto0.5 Rec Yards+135 bet365L10 4/10
3	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.71	+62.6%
Supports OVER Austin Hoopero0.5 Anytime TD+1100 bet365L10 1/10 Charlie Woernero0.5 Anytime TD+1500 Bally BetL10 0/10 Kyle Pitts Sr.o0.5 Anytime TD+310 BetMGML10 4/10 Nick Museo0.5 Anytime TD+2800 BetMGML7 1/7
6	Dropback success rate	49.4%	+3.7 pp
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o228.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 4/10
6	QB pass yards / game	254.8	+13.2%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o228.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 4/10
6	QB pass yards / attempt	7.63	+8.6%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o228.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 4/10
7	QB completions / game	22.3	+8.1%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o19.5 Completions−103 Bally BetL10 4/10
7	QB completion rate	66.7%	+2.4 pp
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o19.5 Completions−103 Bally BetL10 4/10
T8	Receptions / game · TE	5.8	+10.8%
Supports OVER Kyle Pitts Sr.o3.5 Receptions−105 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Austin Hoopero0.5 Receptions−190 bet365L10 7/10
8	Dropbacks / game	37.9	+3.9%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o31.5 Passing Attempts−119 DraftKingsL10 6/10
10	QB pass attempts / game	33.4	+4.2%
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o31.5 Passing Attempts−119 DraftKingsL10 6/10
T10	Dropback explosive rate	8.7%	+0.6 pp
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o36.5 Longest Completion−110 BovadaL10 7/10
10	Receptions / game · RB	4.7	+8.7%
Supports OVER Bijan Robinsono3.5 Receptions−139 CourtsideL10 5/10 Khalil Herberto0.5 Receptions+110 bet365L10 4/10
T11	Receptions / game · WR	11.7	+6.2%
Supports OVER Drake Londono6.5 Receptions+130 Bally BetL10 3/10 Jahan Dotsono1.5 Receptions−170 Hard Rock BetL10 5/10 Olamide Zaccheauso1.5 Receptions+160 bet365L10 2/10 Zachariah Brancho1.5 Receptions+150 bet365L7 4/7
12	Rec yards / game · WR	147.6	+5.8%
Supports OVER Drake Londono79.5 Rec Yards−103 Bally BetL10 3/10 Jahan Dotsono24.5 Rec Yards−115 BetMGML10 4/10 Olamide Zaccheauso9.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L10 1/10 Zachariah Brancho8.5 Rec Yards−115 bet365L7 5/7
T13	RB yards / carry	4.31	−0.6%
Supports OVER Bijan Robinsono80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herberto9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 4/10
13	Rec yards / game · TE	56.6	+6.3%
Supports OVER Kyle Pitts Sr.o35.5 Rec Yards−109 CourtsideL10 5/10 Austin Hoopero6.5 Rec Yards−110 bet365L10 6/10
13	Dropback EPA / play	+0.080	+0.04
Supports OVER Michael Penix Jr.o228.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 4/10
14	Target share · WR	58.7%	+0.7 pp
No lean at 14 of 32 Drake London6.5 Receptionso +130 · u −138L10 3/10 over Jahan Dotson1.5 Receptionso −170 · u +165L10 5/10 over Olamide Zaccheaus1.5 Receptionso +160 · u −210L10 2/10 over Zachariah Branch1.5 Receptionso +150 · u −190L7 4/7 over Drake London79.5 Rec Yardso −103 · u −114L10 3/10 over Jahan Dotson24.5 Rec Yardso −115 · u −109L10 4/10 over Olamide Zaccheaus9.5 Rec Yardso −115 · u −115L10 1/10 over Zachariah Branch8.5 Rec Yardso −115 · u −115L7 5/7 over
T17	Touchdowns / game · RB	0.82	−8.4%
No lean at 17 (tied) of 32 Bijan Robinson0.5 Anytime TDo −167L10 5/10 over Khalil Herbert0.5 Anytime TDo +775L10 0/10 over
19	RZ targets / game · TE	1.12	−8.5%
No lean at 19 of 32 Austin Hooper0.5 Anytime TDo +1100L10 1/10 over Charlie Woerner0.5 Anytime TDo +1500L10 0/10 over Kyle Pitts Sr.0.5 Anytime TDo +310L10 4/10 over Nick Muse0.5 Anytime TDo +2800L7 1/7 over
20	Rush explosive rate	9.2%	−0.7 pp
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu18.5 Longest Rush−114 betPARXL10 3/10 Khalil Herbertu5.5 Longest Rush−120 bet365L10 5/10 Michael Penix Jr.u2.5 Longest Rush−105 bet365L10 5/10
21	Target share · TE	23.5%	−0.4 pp
Supports UNDER Kyle Pitts Sr.u3.5 Receptions−106 FanDuelL10 5/10 Austin Hooperu0.5 Receptions+150 bet365L10 3/10 Kyle Pitts Sr.u35.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL10 5/10 Austin Hooperu6.5 Rec Yards−120 bet365L10 4/10
T21	Touchdowns / game · WR	0.82	−7.8%
T21	RZ targets / game · RB	0.59	−21.7%
22	Target share · RB	17.1%	−0.8 pp
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu3.5 Receptions+112 betPARXL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu0.5 Receptions−140 bet365L10 6/10 Bijan Robinsonu27.5 Rec Yards+105 BetMGML10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu0.5 Rec Yards−170 bet365L10 6/10
T23	RZ targets / game · WR	1.88	−20.8%
26	RB rushing EPA / play	−0.092	−0.04
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 6/10
27	RB rush yards / game	78.8	−16.9%
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 6/10
27	Offensive plays faced / game	58.2	−3.8%
Supports UNDER Michael Penix Jr.u31.5 Passing Attempts−107 DraftKingsL10 4/10
30	Rush success rate	36.4%	−5.0 pp
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu80.5 Rush Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 5/10 Khalil Herbertu9.5 Rush Yards−115 bet365L10 6/10 Michael Penix Jr.u1.5 Rush Yards−102 FanDuelL10 5/10
31	RB carries / game	18.3	−16.3%
Supports UNDER Bijan Robinsonu19.5 Rushing Attempts−117 DraftKingsL10 6/10 Khalil Herbertu3.5 Rushing Attempts−155 bet365L10 7/10
31	Red-zone trips / game	2.53	−21.0%

ATL defense allowsWhat Tampa Bay sees

17 games

ATL leans toward WR targets: 9th-most allowed (60.7%). Offenses pass 2.7 pp less often than expected against ATL.

ATL allowances, 2025. Highest allowance is rank 1.
Rank	Stat	Allowed	VS NFL
4	Touchdowns / game · WR	1.18	+32.7%
Supports OVER Chris Godwin Jr.o0.5 Anytime TD+240 BetMGML10 1/10 David Sills Vo0.5 Anytime TD+1750 BetMGML10 2/10 Kameron Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+7500 Hard Rock BetL10 0/10 Ted Hurst IIIo0.5 Anytime TD+310 Bally BetL7 1/7 Tez Johnsono0.5 Anytime TD+340 FliffL10 1/10
6	RB rushing EPA / play	−0.004	+0.05
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo69.5 Rush Yards−105 bet365L10 5/10 Kenny Gainwello14.5 Rush Yards−110 BetMGML10 6/10
T8	RZ targets / game · RB	0.88	+16.9%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo0.5 Anytime TD−105 CourtsideL10 3/10 Kenny Gainwello0.5 Anytime TD+370 Bally BetL10 2/10 Sean Tuckero0.5 Anytime TD+500 Bally BetL10 5/10
9	Target share · WR	60.7%	+2.7 pp
Supports OVER Chris Godwin Jr.o4.5 Receptions+110 Bally BetL10 3/10 Ted Hurst IIIo2.5 Receptions+102 FanDuelL7 2/7 Tez Johnsono2.5 Receptions+122 FanDuelL10 0/10 Chris Godwin Jr.o40.5 Rec Yards−113 CourtsideL10 2/10 Ted Hurst IIIo31.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL7 3/7 Tez Johnsono29.5 Rec Yards−114 FanDuelL10 3/10
10	Rush success rate	43.4%	+2.0 pp
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo69.5 Rush Yards−105 bet365L10 5/10 Baker Mayfieldo16.5 Rush Yards−114 FanDuelL10 6/10 Kenny Gainwello14.5 Rush Yards−110 BetMGML10 6/10
10	RB yards / carry	4.53	+4.5%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo69.5 Rush Yards−105 bet365L10 5/10 Kenny Gainwello14.5 Rush Yards−110 BetMGML10 6/10
12	RB rush yards / game	101.6	+7.1%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo69.5 Rush Yards−105 bet365L10 5/10 Kenny Gainwello14.5 Rush Yards−110 BetMGML10 6/10
12	Dropback explosive rate	8.4%	+0.3 pp
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo33.5 Longest Completion−120 BetMGML10 5/10
12	Dropbacks / game	37.1	+1.7%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo31.5 Passing Attempts−103 BetOnline.agL10 4/10
13	RB carries / game	22.4	+2.5%
Supports OVER Bucky Irvingo16.5 Rushing Attempts−120 bet365L10 6/10 Kenny Gainwello3.5 Rushing Attempts−140 bet365L10 6/10
13	QB pass yards / attempt	7.13	+1.5%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo213.5 Passing Yards−111 CourtsideL10 4/10
13	Offensive plays faced / game	61.6	+1.7%
Supports OVER Baker Mayfieldo31.5 Passing Attempts−103 BetOnline.agL10 4/10
14	Target share · RB	18.6%	+0.7 pp
No lean at 14 of 32 Bucky Irving2.5 Receptionso −156 · u +130L10 3/10 over Kenny Gainwell1.5 Receptionso −130 · u +130L10 7/10 over Bucky Irving18.5 Rec Yardso −112 · u −110L10 1/10 over Kenny Gainwell11.5 Rec Yardso −114 · u −112L10 5/10 over
14	Rec yards / game · WR	144.1	+3.2%
No lean at 14 of 32 Chris Godwin Jr.40.5 Rec Yardso −113 · u −111L10 2/10 over Ted Hurst III31.5 Rec Yardso −114 · u −108L7 3/7 over Tez Johnson29.5 Rec Yardso −114 · u −110L10 3/10 over
T16	Receptions / game · WR	11.1	+0.8%
No lean at 16 (tied) of 32 Chris Godwin Jr.4.5 Receptionso +110 · u −120L10 3/10 over Ted Hurst III2.5 Receptionso +102 · u −118L7 2/7 over Tez Johnson2.5 Receptionso +122 · u −139L10 0/10 over
T16	RZ targets / game · WR	2.35	−1.0%
No lean at 16 (tied) of 32 Chris Godwin Jr.0.5 Anytime TDo +240L10 1/10 over David Sills V0.5 Anytime TDo +1750L10 2/10 over Kameron Johnson0.5 Anytime TDo +7500L10 0/10 over Ted Hurst III0.5 Anytime TDo +310L7 1/7 over Tez Johnson0.5 Anytime TDo +340L10 1/10 over
17	Rec yards / game · RB	29.9	−5.4%
No lean at 17 of 32 Bucky Irving18.5 Rec Yardso −112 · u −110L10 1/10 over Kenny Gainwell11.5 Rec Yardso −114 · u −112L10 5/10 over
17	Dropback success rate	45.4%	−0.2 pp
No lean at 17 of 32 Baker Mayfield213.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 4/10 over
18	QB pass yards / game	221.9	−1.4%
No lean at 18 of 32 Baker Mayfield213.5 Passing Yardso −111 · u −113L10 4/10 over
T19	Receptions / game · RB	4.1	−5.1%
No lean at 19 (tied) of 32 Bucky Irving2.5 Receptionso −156 · u +130L10 3/10 over Kenny Gainwell1.5 Receptionso −130 · u +130L10 7/10 over
20	QB pass attempts / game	31.1	−2.9%
Supports UNDER Baker Mayfieldu31.5 Passing Attempts−122 DraftKingsL10 6/10
20	Dropback EPA / play	+0.004	−0.04
Supports UNDER Baker Mayfieldu213.5 Passing Yards−113 DraftKingsL10 6/10
T20	RZ targets / game · TE	1.06	−13.4%
T20	Red-zone trips / game	3.00	−6.3%
21	Rush explosive rate	9.1%	−0.8 pp
Supports UNDER Bucky Irvingu14.5 Longest Rush−115 Hard Rock BetL10 7/10 Baker Mayfieldu10.5 Longest Rush−125 Hard Rock BetL10 4/10 Kenny Gainwellu6.5 Longest Rush+101 DraftKingsL10 4/10 Sean Tuckeru5.5 Longest Rush−125 bet365L10 4/10
T22	Touchdowns / game · RB	0.76	−15.1%
23	QB completion rate	62.6%	−1.7 pp
Supports UNDER Baker Mayfieldu19.5 Completions+101 DraftKingsL10 7/10
24	Rec yards / game · TE	46.1	−13.5%
Supports UNDER Cade Ottonu33.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 6/10
25	QB completions / game	19.5	−5.6%
Supports UNDER Baker Mayfieldu19.5 Completions+101 DraftKingsL10 7/10
28	Target share · TE	20.1%	−3.8 pp
Supports UNDER Cade Ottonu3.5 Receptions−110 BetMGML10 6/10 Cade Ottonu33.5 Rec Yards−114 BetOnline.agL10 6/10
T29	Receptions / game · TE	4.1	−22.7%
Supports UNDER Cade Ottonu3.5 Receptions−110 BetMGML10 6/10
32	Touchdowns / game · TE	0.18	−58.8%