https://steezanomics.com/learn/ Player prop research: guides on props, fair odds and vig, plus research and stories built from a ledger where every bet is published, losses included. en-ca Sat, 31 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT https://steezanomics.com/learn/thunder-props-without-jalen-williams/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/thunder-props-without-jalen-williams/ Sat, 31 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 49 Thunder games without Jalen Williams last season, Ajay Mitchell averaged 15.14 points against 11.96 in the 28 with him. https://steezanomics.com/learn/timberwolves-props-without-anthony-edwards/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/timberwolves-props-without-anthony-edwards/ Fri, 30 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 22 Timberwolves games without Anthony Edwards last season, Jaden McDaniels averaged 18.24 points against 13.82 in the 60 with him. https://steezanomics.com/learn/kings-props-without-keegan-murray/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/kings-props-without-keegan-murray/ Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 60 Kings games without Keegan Murray last season, Nique Clifford averaged 27.28 minutes and 9.58 points, against 19.82 and 6.23 in the 22 with him. https://steezanomics.com/learn/rockets-props-without-alperen-sengun/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/rockets-props-without-alperen-sengun/ Wed, 28 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 11 Rockets games without Alperen Sengun last season, Clint Capela averaged 19.00 minutes and 6.55 rebounds, against 11.19 and 4.27 with him. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nba-player-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nba-player-prop-odds/ Wed, 28 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Six NBA mornings, 49 games, 8,033 sides: NoVig led over best-price share among wide-coverage books, Bovada led unders. Counts by market, two $100 rows. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-anytime-touchdown-odds-move-before-sunday/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-anytime-touchdown-odds-move-before-sunday/ Tue, 27 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research We read every anytime TD price for NFL week 7's Sunday afternoon games once a day, Thursday to Sunday. 3,035 of 3,807 book prices moved. https://steezanomics.com/learn/pistons-props-without-jalen-duren/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/pistons-props-without-jalen-duren/ Tue, 27 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 12 Pistons games without Jalen Duren last season, Paul Reed averaged 15.25 points and 7.83 rebounds in 27.00 minutes, against 6.06, 3.77 and 10.85 with him. https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-defense-vs-position-matter-for-nhl-shots-on-goal/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-defense-vs-position-matter-for-nhl-shots-on-goal/ Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Our 2025/26 NHL study found a 0.31-shot gap for forwards and 0.22 for defencemen between generous and stingy opponents, versus each skater's prior average. https://steezanomics.com/learn/first-basket-vs-first-field-goal-prices/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/first-basket-vs-first-field-goal-prices/ Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 92 of 1,175 NBA games last season, first basket and first field goal paid different players. We compared 290 prices from 22 to 25 October 2026. https://steezanomics.com/learn/jazz-props-without-jusuf-nurkic/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/jazz-props-without-jusuf-nurkic/ Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 41 Jazz games without Jusuf Nurkic last season, Kyle Filipowski averaged 8.76 rebounds (5.70 with him) and Ace Bailey 17.00 points (10.92). https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nhl-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nhl-player-prop-tools/ Sun, 25 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup We opened eleven NHL prop tools logged out on October 24, 2026, a 12-game slate. Six showed an NHL prop board; five showed no free NHL view at all. https://steezanomics.com/learn/magic-props-without-paolo-banchero/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/magic-props-without-paolo-banchero/ Sun, 25 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 10 Magic games without Paolo Banchero last season, Franz Wagner averaged 23.60 points (19.29 with him) and Desmond Bane 23.10 (19.67). https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nba-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nba-player-prop-tools/ Sat, 24 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup We opened ten NBA prop tools logged out on October 23, 2026, a 12-game slate. Five showed a prop board; three showed nothing without an account. https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-alternatives-to-outlier/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-alternatives-to-outlier/ Sat, 24 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Outlier ran $19.99 to $79.99 a month on October 23, 2026, and showed 3 free NBA bets logged out. What the free prop tools showed the same morning. https://steezanomics.com/learn/suns-props-without-mark-williams/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/suns-props-without-mark-williams/ Sat, 24 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 22 Suns games without Mark Williams last season, Devin Booker averaged 28.95 points (24.65 with him) and Jalen Green 20.50 (15.00). https://steezanomics.com/learn/world-series-game-2-player-props-rays-brewers/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/world-series-game-2-player-props-rays-brewers/ Sat, 24 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Rays at Brewers, Game 2: 190 main-line props from 17 books on our 11:00 AM ET board, with Game 1's box lines and each player's 2026 hit rate at the line. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-does-an-nba-player-prop-cost-you/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-does-an-nba-player-prop-cost-you/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research We measured 14,270 NBA player prop lines on our 21 and 22 October 2026 boards. The median margin was 6.93%, against 4.76% for a -110 side. https://steezanomics.com/learn/magic-props-without-anthony-black/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/magic-props-without-anthony-black/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 19 Magic games without Anthony Black last season, Tristan da Silva averaged 13.00 points (8.88 with him), but Franz Wagner missed 16 of those games. https://steezanomics.com/learn/trail-blazers-props-without-shaedon-sharpe/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/trail-blazers-props-without-shaedon-sharpe/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 32 Blazers games without Shaedon Sharpe last season, Jrue Holiday averaged 17.75 points (14.72 with him) and Donovan Clingan 13.74 (11.04). https://steezanomics.com/learn/world-series-game-1-player-props-rays-brewers/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/world-series-game-1-player-props-rays-brewers/ Fri, 23 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Rays at Brewers, Game 1: 194 main-line props from 18 books on our 12:05 PM ET board, with each hitter's and starter's 2026 hit rate at the line. https://steezanomics.com/learn/rangers-props-without-igor-shesterkin/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/rangers-props-without-igor-shesterkin/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 37 Rangers games without Igor Shesterkin since 2025-26, they faced 28.54 shots a game against 27.95 with him. Dylan Garand has started all 6 this season. https://steezanomics.com/learn/pacers-props-without-aaron-nesmith/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/pacers-props-without-aaron-nesmith/ Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 37 Pacers games without Aaron Nesmith last season, Pascal Siakam averaged 23.61 points (24.15 with him) and Jay Huff 4.59 rebounds (3.42 with him). https://steezanomics.com/learn/warriors-props-without-jimmy-butler/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/warriors-props-without-jimmy-butler/ Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 44 Warriors games without Jimmy Butler last season, Gui Santos averaged 13.32 points (3.29 with him), but Stephen Curry missed 34 of those games. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nhl-points-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nhl-points-odds/ Wed, 21 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Seven NHL mornings, 51 games: ProphetX led over 0.5 points best-price share; BetMGM led under 0.5. Counts, coverage and two $100 examples. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-nfl-defense-funnels-hold-up-week-to-week/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-nfl-defense-funnels-hold-up-week-to-week/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research We ranked all 32 NFL defences on 12 position allowances over weeks 1 to 3 of 2026, then over weeks 4 to 6. The early order barely carried over. https://steezanomics.com/learn/jets-props-without-connor-hellebuyck/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/jets-props-without-connor-hellebuyck/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 33 Jets games without Connor Hellebuyck since 2025-26, Kyle Connor averaged 3.70 shots on goal (3.32 with him) and the Jets faced 28.67 shots a game. https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-defense-vs-position-matter-for-nba-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-defense-vs-position-matter-for-nba-props/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Our 2025-26 NBA logs show how results differed against high- and low-allowance defenses, measured against each player's prior average, not prop lines. https://steezanomics.com/learn/ducks-props-without-troy-terry/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/ducks-props-without-troy-terry/ Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 28 Ducks games without Troy Terry since 2025-26, Beckett Sennecke averaged 2.93 shots on goal (2.18 with him); Cutter Gauthier's 3.69 barely moved. https://steezanomics.com/learn/jets-props-without-breece-hall/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/jets-props-without-breece-hall/ Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In two 2026 games without Breece Hall, Braelon Allen played 94% and 86% of the snaps and carried 14 and 24 times, after 6.3 a game beside Hall. https://steezanomics.com/learn/chiefs-props-without-rashee-rice/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/chiefs-props-without-rashee-rice/ Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In 6 games without Rashee Rice but with Patrick Mahomes, his targets went to three receivers who are not available now. Kelce's targets held steady. https://steezanomics.com/learn/ravens-props-without-lamar-jackson/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/ravens-props-without-lamar-jackson/ Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research In the 5 games without Lamar Jackson since 2025, Derrick Henry carried 24 times a game (17.6 with him) and Zay Flowers averaged 52.8 yards (84.5 with him). https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-anytime-goal-scorer-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-anytime-goal-scorer-odds/ Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research 608 scorer prices across three NHL slates. NoVig, bet365 and FanDuel were close at the top; each player's highest price still needed checking. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nhl-shots-on-goal-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nhl-shots-on-goal-odds/ Thu, 15 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research 603 comparable shots sides across three NHL slates. NoVig led the listed-price count at 35.1%; non-exchange books were close, and coverage varied. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-check-for-anytime-goal-scorer-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-check-for-anytime-goal-scorer-props/ Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Five checks from NHL game logs: scoring games, shots, minutes, power-play role and the exact market. Why 41 goals did not mean 41 winning games. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-nhl-shots-on-goal-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-nhl-shots-on-goal-props/ Tue, 13 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A 3.50-shot average covered over 3.5 in only 43.9% of games. Our NHL logs show why the line, minutes and game-by-game count belong together. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-an-nfl-prop-against-a-defense/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-an-nfl-prop-against-a-defense/ Mon, 12 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Use players in the same role and read workload beside the result. The Lab's defence block separates today's threshold from each peer's historical line. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-nfl-receiving-yards-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-nfl-receiving-yards-props/ Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Read targets, target share, snap share and receiving depth before relying on a yards average. A four-game example shows how one afternoon can dominate it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-nfl-rushing-yards-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-nfl-rushing-yards-props/ Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Read carries, snap share, yards per carry and the defence together. A four-game Derrick Henry example shows why a yards average needs its workload beside it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-many-sportsbooks-do-you-need-for-player-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-many-sportsbooks-do-you-need-for-player-props/ Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Measured across eight US books on an NFL week: three books got the best price on 80% of yardage props. Anytime touchdowns needed five to pass 90%. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-college-football-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-college-football-player-prop-tools/ Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Five prop tools opened logged out on a college Saturday. BettingPros had 47 pages of props, RotoWire compared nine books, PropsMadness listed no college. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-all-sportsbooks-have-the-same-prop-line/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-all-sportsbooks-have-the-same-prop-line/ Wed, 07 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Where three or more of eight US books posted a line, they agreed on one receiving yards number for 13% of NFL players. Week 2: 14 results fell in the gap. https://steezanomics.com/learn/is-line-shopping-worth-it-for-player-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/is-line-shopping-worth-it-for-player-props/ Tue, 06 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Eight US books, one NFL week: shopping paid $2.56 to $4.86 more per $100 on yardage props and a median 7% to 12.5% more on anytime TDs. https://steezanomics.com/learn/anytime-touchdown-odds-by-position/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/anytime-touchdown-odds-by-position/ Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research One NFL week of anytime TD prices by role: each team's lead running back was a median +110, top receiver +212, top tight end +340, quarterback about +560. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nfl-player-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-nfl-player-prop-odds/ Sun, 04 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research 15 books, 2,339 sides, one NFL week. DraftKings led yardage again, 75% of receiving yards and 40 of 40 passing. Receptions and touchdowns went elsewhere. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-are-there-no-player-props-for-this-college-football-game/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-are-there-no-player-props-for-this-college-football-game/ Sat, 03 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research On the Friday before one Saturday slate, 12 of 65 college games had no player props at any book we track. All 12 were FBS teams hosting FCS teams. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-college-football-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-college-football-prop-odds/ Fri, 02 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research One college weekend, 12 books, 2,328 sides. DraftKings led anytime TDs, FanDuel and BetOnline split receiving yards, BetOnline passing. Fliff: 5 of 1,193. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-nfl-player-prop-lines-move-during-the-week/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-nfl-player-prop-lines-move-during-the-week/ Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research We read one NFL week at noon every day. Of the yardage lines up by Wednesday, about 4 in 5 sat on a different number by Sunday. Most props were not up yet. https://steezanomics.com/learn/can-you-trust-nfl-prop-hit-rates-early-in-the-season/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/can-you-trust-nfl-prop-hit-rates-early-in-the-season/ Wed, 30 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide On our NFL week 3 board, 91% of prop lines had an L5 reaching into last season. On 35, the L5 and this season disagreed by 50 points or more. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-strikeout-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-strikeout-prop-odds/ Tue, 29 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Eight MLB slates, 13 books, 525 strikeout sides. Two exchanges topped it: NoVig on 47% of its sides. Among sportsbooks, DraftKings 6.2%, FanDuel 3.8%. https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-alt-lines-worse-odds-than-the-main-line/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-alt-lines-worse-odds-than-the-main-line/ Mon, 28 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research 1,194 bets bet365 posted twice, both prices updated within 5 minutes. Usually one price. In baseball the ladder paid less 165 times, more 91. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-are-alt-lines-in-player-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-are-alt-lines-in-player-props/ Sun, 27 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide An alt line is the same prop at a different number and price. On 186 NFL receiving yards ladders, a rung up to 10 yards above the line paid a median +120. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-anytime-touchdown-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-anytime-touchdown-odds/ Sat, 26 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research 14 books priced anytime TDs on 415 NFL week 3 players. No book was best on more than about a quarter. Caesars: 3 of 398. Short prices: a $30 per $100 gap. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-tools-for-home-run-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-tools-for-home-run-props/ Fri, 25 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Free prop tools on a live MLB slate, counted for home runs. Only one shows the park and the wind, which is the thing a home run actually turns on. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nfl-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-nfl-player-prop-tools/ Thu, 24 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Prop tools opened logged out on a live NFL week 1 board. BettingPros showed 655 props in 11 markets. Football's biggest prop market was the thinnest one. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-limit-winning-bettors/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-limit-winning-bettors/ Wed, 23 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Story Yes, but the usual reason is not winning. Promo abuse and arbitrage get you limited fastest. Across 15+ accounts over years we were hard limited twice. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-mlb-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-mlb-player-prop-tools/ Tue, 22 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Twelve prop tools opened logged out on one MLB slate. Five gave real research free. Only two show what baseball props turn on: park, weather, pitcher. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-paid-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-paid-player-prop-tools/ Mon, 21 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup PropFinder, Props.Cash and Outlier prices checked October 15, 2026: monthly and annual billing, promotions and what each plan advertises. https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-alternatives-to-props-cash/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-alternatives-to-props-cash/ Sun, 20 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Props.Cash cost about $200 a year at list in September and shows nothing logged out. We opened twelve prop tools logged out. Five gave real research free. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-a-player-prop/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-a-player-prop/ Sat, 19 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Five steps in the order our model runs them. Start with the price, not the player, and never take a price from the book that built your fair. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-stats-do-player-prop-tools-use/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-stats-do-player-prop-tools-use/ Fri, 18 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Our form score is 60% last 10, 40% season, and our model needs 20 games. Why that split, why the minimum bites pitchers harder, and the short-window trap. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-have-different-player-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-sportsbooks-have-different-player-prop-odds/ Thu, 17 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research DraftKings beat FanDuel on 69.2% of 1,350 shared props one night. Against bet365 on 3,054 it was a wash. Whether line shopping pays depends on the books. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-best-player-prop-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-best-player-prop-odds/ Wed, 16 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Best prices counted across 19 books on 6,376 priced sides from one night. No single winner: DraftKings had 93% of passing yards props and zero home runs. https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-home-run-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/which-sportsbook-has-the-best-home-run-odds/ Tue, 15 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research The best price on every home run prop across 19 books. NoVig had it on 56% of its rows. DraftKings, king of passing yards, had it on none of 147. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-does-a-player-prop-cost-you/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-does-a-player-prop-cost-you/ Mon, 14 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Everyone says props carry more vig than sides. Nobody publishes the number. We took 6,213 player lines where one book quoted both sides and measured it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-check-for-anytime-touchdown-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-check-for-anytime-touchdown-props/ Sun, 13 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Five things in order, each a number you can look up. Including the one that surprises people: defences differ threefold in touchdowns allowed by position. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-your-player-props-keep-losing/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-your-player-props-keep-losing/ Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Winning half your props is not breaking even. On one night of our board, books held 5.4% to 11.4% on player props. What that does to a 50% record. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-rbi-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-rbi-props/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide An RBI needs a runner on base first. Why opportunity beats contact quality, what lineup spot really does, and the settlement rules people get wrong. https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-mlb-batter-starting-matter/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/does-mlb-batter-starting-matter/ Wed, 09 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research A starting batter averages 4.12 plate appearances. One off the bench averages 1.14. What that does to a hit rate, and how far a blended last-ten is off. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-stolen-base-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-stolen-base-props/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A stolen base needs four things before speed matters: reach base, be allowed to run, face a pitcher who lets him, and pick the moment. The research path. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-walk-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-research-walk-props/ Mon, 07 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Walk props come down to two people disagreeing about the strike zone: the hitter's discipline, the pitcher's command, and the umpire nobody checks. https://steezanomics.com/learn/batter-vs-pitcher-history-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/batter-vs-pitcher-history-props/ Sun, 06 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide He is 3 for 7 lifetime against tonight's starter. Why seven at-bats over three seasons cannot carry that weight, and what to look at instead. https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-l5-l10-prop-trends-matter/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/do-l5-l10-prop-trends-matter/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Every prop app leads with 8 of his last 10. What a hot streak tells you, what it cannot, and why the number is on the screen in the first place. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-home-run-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-home-run-props/ Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A home run needs the ball hit hard, in the air, at the right angle, enough times. What barrel rate, exit velocity and fly-ball rate each tell you. https://steezanomics.com/learn/pitcher-outs-recorded-explained/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/pitcher-outs-recorded-explained/ Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide 17.5 outs means the over needs 18, exactly six complete innings. The conversion for every common line, what happens when he is pulled, and the void rules. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-total-bases-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-total-bases-props/ Wed, 02 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Total bases asks how far a hitter got, not whether he got there. The numbers that matter, from isolated power to plate appearances, in the order to check. https://steezanomics.com/learn/hits-vs-total-bases/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/hits-vs-total-bases/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide At the 0.5 line they are the same bet and settle together. At 1.5 they disagree one time in seven. Where the markets split and which hitter suits which. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-h-r-rbi-in-baseball-betting/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-h-r-rbi-in-baseball-betting/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide H+R+RBI adds a hitter's hits, runs scored and runs batted in into one number. Over 1.5 needs any two. A solo home run gets you three at once. What counts. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-counts-as-total-bases/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-counts-as-total-bases/ Sun, 30 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Singles count 1, doubles 2, triples 3, home runs 4. Walks, hit by pitch, steals and errors count zero. Every case that catches people out, with examples. https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-player-prop-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/free-player-prop-tools/ Sat, 29 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Twelve prop tools opened logged out, on an MLB slate in August 2026 and an NFL slate in October. What each showed for free, and where ours ranked. https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-strikeout-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/stats-for-strikeout-props/ Fri, 28 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research We pre-registered 17 claims about what a lineup does to a starter and tested them on 3,362 real starts. One survived. Then we checked it against the line. https://steezanomics.com/learn/overs-vs-unders-player-props/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/overs-vs-unders-player-props/ Thu, 27 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research Unders hit 55.6% and overs 46.0% across 1,776 tracked MLB prop leans. The gap looks decisive until you check what each side needed to break even. https://steezanomics.com/learn/profit-boost-parlay-vs-straight/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/profit-boost-parlay-vs-straight/ Sat, 01 Aug 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Same 30% boost, three tickets: a -110 single earns +9.1% EV, a 2-leg parlay +11.0%, a +280 alt line +16.0%. Where a profit boost earns most and why. https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-no-sweat-bets-worth-it/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-no-sweat-bets-worth-it/ Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A no-sweat bet refunds a losing stake as a bonus bet, not cash. The EV formula, what a $100 no-sweat is worth at each price, and why the math favors dogs. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-many-legs-should-a-parlay-have/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-many-legs-should-a-parlay-have/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Every -110 leg compounds about 4.5% of house edge: 2 legs costs about 9% of fair value, 5+ pays over 20% for lottery odds. The math by leg count. https://steezanomics.com/learn/bonus-bet-vs-profit-boost/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/bonus-bet-vs-profit-boost/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide A $100 bonus bet is worth $48 to $80 depending on the odds you play it at. The conversion table, the boost comparison, and which offer is worth more. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-use-a-profit-boost-on/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-to-use-a-profit-boost-on/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide On a $25 cap, a 50% boost is worth $4.17 on a -200 favorite and $10.00 on a +400 dog. The decision table, why longshots fight the math, and the answer. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-pick-a-betting-discord/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-pick-a-betting-discord/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Most betting Discords sell confidence, not math. A five-point checklist: public ledgers, settled results, honest language, real pricing, and the free tier. https://steezanomics.com/learn/bankroll-and-unit-sizing/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/bankroll-and-unit-sizing/ Sun, 26 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Why 1-2% flat stakes beat gut sizing, the losing-streak math nobody runs, and how our boost desk sized its own plays with a hard cap. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-can-you-make-sports-betting/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-much-can-you-make-sports-betting/ Sat, 25 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Story Real numbers from 5,000+ logged bets: what +EV betting pays at realistic stakes, why the ceiling is lower than claimed, and the two walls bettors hit. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-devig-odds/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-devig-odds/ Fri, 24 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Devigging strips the book's fee out of a line to reveal the market's true probability. The two-step method with a worked example, and where it breaks. https://steezanomics.com/learn/parlay-payouts-explained/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/parlay-payouts-explained/ Thu, 23 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Parlay payouts for 2 through 8 legs, the math behind them, how much of your payout disappears at each leg, and the one case where a parlay is smart. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-ev-betting-tools/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-ev-betting-tools/ Wed, 15 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Six +EV betting tools compared honestly, July 2026, free and paid, plus the math on when a subscription fee is itself a losing bet. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-spot-fake-betting-accounts/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-spot-fake-betting-accounts/ Tue, 14 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Five tells that expose fake betting accounts and pick-sellers, from no tracked record to a feed with no red days, and the question that makes them vanish. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-closing-line-value/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-closing-line-value/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Closing line value is the gap between your odds and the close, in implied probability. Profit lies for months. CLV does not. Formula, example, self-check. https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-calculate-profit-boost-ev/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/how-to-calculate-profit-boost-ev/ Sun, 12 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Four steps to price any profit boost: fair price, apply the boost, convert to probability, compare. Two worked examples and the trap most bettors miss. https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-ev-betting/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/what-is-ev-betting/ Sat, 11 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide +EV betting means betting only when the price beats the true probability. The coin-flip math, where the edges come from, and whether it is still gambling. https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-free-ev-betting-calculators/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/best-free-ev-betting-calculators/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Roundup Six free calculators for devigging odds, pricing boosts and checking parlays, ranked honestly, including where each one beats our own. https://steezanomics.com/learn/two-weeks-of-public-boost-data/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/two-weeks-of-public-boost-data/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Research A dated snapshot of the public desk, June 24 to July 6: 179 graded plays, a 29.9% hit rate against a 25.2% breakeven, +27.1% ROI, every slip type green. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-minus-110-is-not-50-50/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-minus-110-is-not-50-50/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Both sides sit at -110, but you need to win 52.4% just to break even. That gap is the vig, and it is why most bettors slowly bleed without feeling it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-we-post-every-loss/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-we-post-every-loss/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Story Most picks services delete bad days and restart under new names. Steezanomics grades itself every morning and publishes the red days too. https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-you-keep-losing-parlays/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/why-you-keep-losing-parlays/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Parlays multiply every leg's odds and the vig with them. Two -110 legs cost about 9% in hidden margin, four about 17%. The math, and when one is worth it. https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-profit-boosts-worth-it/ https://steezanomics.com/learn/are-profit-boosts-worth-it/ Sun, 05 Jul 2026 14:30:00 GMT Guide Sometimes. A profit boost is +EV only when the boosted payout beats the true no-vig odds. The exact math, the super boost trap, and the 5-second test.